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Sri Lanka goes to the polls today

By V.S. Sambandan

COLOMBO, APRIL 1. Sri Lanka's 12.8 million voters will head for the polls tomorrow to elect the island-nation's 13th Parliament. The election, the third in four years, appears unlikely to come up with a clear winner, raising the possibility of two extreme ends of the island's divided politics — the parties representing hardline Sinhala and Tamil nationalisms — emerging as the deciding forces.

The elections, called four years ahead of schedule after the collapse of the bitter co-habitation government between the constitutionally powerful Executive President, Chandrika Kumaratunga, and the Prime Minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe, could result in "political tension and uncertainty" and "is unlikely to result in political stability," according to Jayadeva Uyangoda, head of Political Science, Colombo University.

"There won't be a clear winner, but there will be many losers," Dr. Uyangoda told The Hindu. With neither party likely to get a majority, he expects "an intense campaign for outbidding between the two parties to win MPs to reach a majority," which "will create a period of political tension and uncertainty, exacerbating existing hostilities."

The Proportionate Representation system makes it difficult for either of the main contestants — the ruling United National Party (UNP) headed by Mr. Wickremesinghe and the Opposition United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA), headed by Ms. Kumaratunga — to form a government on its own. Consequently, the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) backed by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), which has refused to lay down arms "until a final solution is reached," sees for itself the role of a "kingmaker" in the island's 225-member Parliament.

With several of its candidates on the TNA list, the main beneficiary from a hung Parliament could be the LTTE, which is currently banned in several countries, including India and the United States.

During the peace talks, the LTTE agreed to "explore federal models" to find a solution to the island's decades-long separatist conflict within a "united'' Sri Lanka, but declined to renounce separatism as an option.

While the TNA represents the Tamil nationalist position, the Jathika Hela Urumaya (HU), fielding Buddhist monks in all constituencies, is contesting on the Sinhala-Buddhist nationalist plank of "preventing domination by the minorities" and would stand to gain if it wins the number of seats required for either of the two main parties to reach a majority.

Uncertainty in the east

Though tomorrow's poll is preceded by two years of unbroken peace, a grim uncertainty has descended in eastern Sri Lanka following the displacement of northern Tamils from the eastern Batticaloa district — a direct aftermath of the LTTE's worst-ever internal crisis when its military commander for two eastern districts, V. Muralitharan (`Col.' Karuna), broke ranks with the group on March 3 citing "discrimination."

With `Col.' Karuna, who commands thousands of armed cadres, maintaining a belligerent note and the LTTE declaring its intention to "get rid" of him, the prospects of a clash between the two armed LTTE groups have increased. In addition, following the recent killing of a pro-Karuna TNA candidate in Batticaloa, northern Tamils started leaving the eastern town in large numbers, reportedly after "threats'' from the supporters of `Col.' Karuna.

United Nations agencies, which have a major presence in the island today "strongly condemned" the displacement of the northern Tamils as "a flagrant breach of human rights" and urged "authorities of all parties to respect the rights of people to live without fear or persecution."

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