The Hindu : Opinion / News Analysis : A mandate for economic issues rather than peace process

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Monday, Apr 05, 2004

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

A mandate for economic issues rather than peace process

By V.S. Sambandan

The victory of the United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA), led by the Sri Lankan President, Chandrika Kumaratunga, is a clear indicator that economic issues took precedence over the peace process initiated by the Prime Minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe's United National Party (UNP).

The overwhelming popular mandate won by the UPFA is both a result of the electoral combination of the two main Opposition parties in the previous Parliament — the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) — and the popular acceptance of the UPFA's main contention that the UNP was "conceding too much'' to the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in the negotiations that have been stalled since last April.

Unlike the divided mandate of 2001, which led to a bitter cohabitation government of the President and the Prime Minister, the Parliamentary majority for the UPFA has opened the possibility of a return to relatively frictionless governance. However, the course that the Sri Lankan polity takes would largely depend on how the contradictions between the SLFP and the JVP are managed, particularly on the conflict resolution front.

A key feature of the election result is the emergence of Tamil and Sinhala nationalisms — the two extremes of Sri Lanka's political spectrum. The Tamil National Alliance (TNA), backed by the LTTE, has already said that getting an Interim Self Governing Authority for the Northeast (ISGA), as proposed by the Tigers, is a high priority. The all-Buddhist clergy, Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU), wants to end the "domination by the minorities" in Sri Lankan politics. In addition to the JHU, the JVP, main ally of the SLFP, opposes devolution of powers to the regions — the crux of Ms. Kumaratunga's approach to end the decades-long separatist crisis.The exact number of JVP MPs is not yet known, but the manner in which the President manages the diametrically opposed view of the JVP on the conflict resolution front, is one of the issues that would emerge in the coming months.

Rather than an outright rejection of the peace process as such, the UNP's defeat is seen as popular disagreement over the manner in which the process was handled, as the UPFA had made it clear that it would continue with the negotiations, but "with a correct approach."

The UPFA would have to embark on a two-stage process to revive the peace talks. Initially, it would have to convince the main constituents, especially the JVP, that their political sensitivities would not be affected. The agreement to disagree between the SLFP and the JVP on issues relating to the peace process would also be put to test, depending on the Parliamentary strength of the latter.The second stage of restarting talks with the Tigers would involve issues such as the LTTE's insistence that it be accepted as the "sole representative" of the Tamils. Opponents of the Tigers are emphatic that particularly after last month's split, the Tigers could no longer make such a claim. The UPFA has kept the option open on inclusiveness by stating that separate discussions would be with other groups as a practical way out.

Likely Prime Ministerial candidates

The immediate task ahead for the UPFA would be to choose the Prime Minister. With the UPFA set to form the next government, two senior party leaders, the Leader of the Opposition, Mahinda Rajapakse, and the former Foreign Affairs Minister, Lakshman Kadirgamar, have emerged as likely prime ministerial candidates. Both leaders declined to comment.

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A mandate for economic issues rather than peace process