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Tuesday, Apr 06, 2004

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SRI LANKA VOTES FOR CHANGE

AS EXPECTED, THE parliamentary election in Sri Lanka did not give either of the main political groupings an outright majority. But even though the Freedom Alliance of President Chandrika Kumaratunga did not win the election decisively, and with 47 per cent of the vote needs the help of other parties to form the government, the Ranil Wickremesinghe-led United National Party has clearly been voted out. The race to the election began with the premise that the F.A. — a new alliance of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna — had only an arithmetic edge over the UNP. But the people's dissatisfaction with the UNP has played a bigger role, slashing its vote to about 38 per cent from the high-water mark of 45.6 per cent that propelled it into power in 2001. The ceasefire between the UNP's United National Front Government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam was doubtless a major achievement that brought relief to a war-weary people. However, support for Mr. Wickremesinghe shrank on two counts: one, his failure to translate the truce swiftly into economic benefits for rural Sri Lanka; and two, the perception that his Government was soft on the LTTE, clearly the reason for a significant number of the UNP's Sinhala-Buddhist supporters favouring the Jathika Hela Urumaya, a new party of Buddhist monks.

While economic issues and the disenchantment of the majority Sinhalese trumped the UNP at this election, the immediate question facing the new Government relates to the peace process. The F.A. has pledged not to disturb the ceasefire. But the real challenge for it, and for President Kumaratunga, who will now have her own party in government, is to transform the ceasefire into permanent peace by carrying forward the negotiations on the core political issues of the Tamil question. For this, the F.A. needs first to resolve the differences within itself on an eventual political solution to the conflict. While the SLFP with Ms. Kumaratunga at the helm stands firm that only devolution can meet Tamil political aspirations, the JVP — which has played a vital role in the F.A. success — will commit itself only to administrative decentralisation. So far, the two parties have managed to deal with this potentially crippling difference by not talking about it. It remains to be seen if the JVP's hardline position will be tempered by its new responsibility of governance. But there is now little escape from formulating a clear joint position. The task is urgent as the new Government will need to provide a coherent and firm response to the Interim Self-Governing Authority proposals — a virtual charter for a separate state — that the LTTE articulated last October.

An SLFP-JVP agreement on these issues is only the first step. The F.A. Government needs to take the entire nation into confidence on the peace process, something the previous Government failed to do. While it is up to Mr. Wickremesinghe to demonstrate he is the leader of a responsible Opposition, the F.A. Government must leave no room for doubt that it considers the UNP a crucial partner in the peace efforts. The process has to become more inclusive among the Tamils as well. With the Karuna-led split, the LTTE can no longer claim to be the "sole representative" of the Tamils. The Muslims, a significant minority in the North-East, who have increasingly felt left out of the proceedings between the Government and the LTTE, must also be taken on board. Ultimately, Sri Lanka's 20-year-old conflict can be resolved only through the widest possible consensus. It falls on the new Government to craft one.

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