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Friday, Apr 16, 2004

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THE FALL OF KARUNA

THE SHORT KARUNA chapter in the Sri Lanka story has reconfirmed that the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam cannot deal with dissent in any way other than crushing it. The LTTE leader, Velupillai Prabakaran, has never brooked challengers, internal or external. The group has gone through rival groups and dissenters within its ranks like a knife through butter. Therefore, it was only a matter of time before the LTTE went after Karuna, its one-time military commander in eastern Sri Lanka, who rebelled against the top leadership. Karuna's flight in the face of a military onslaught by the LTTE against his forces in the East has enabled Mr. Prabakaran to lay unchallenged claim once again to the status of sole representative of the Tamils. But the manner in which the LTTE set upon the rebel leader shows that force and intimidation are the essential ingredients of this claim, which has never been put through a democratic test. The recent electoral success of the Tamil National Alliance, a proxy of the LTTE, in the North-East does not qualify because it was won (as both Sri Lankan and international election monitors have noted) through similar force and intimidation of rival candidates.

It is clear that the LTTE could not have got away with its military assault against Karuna but for the extremely narrow interpretation given to the February 2002 ceasefire by the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission, the Norway-led multilateral body that supervises the truce. Despite the evidence that the Tigers began building up for the assault immediately following Karuna's March 3 rebellion, the SLMM seems to have taken the view that the ceasefire agreement was only between the LTTE and the Sri Lankan armed forces. With no one prepared to prevent the fighting, with only limited means at his disposal to arm and maintain the cadres under his command, and with no apparent support from either the Sri Lankan armed forces or a "third power" (as was alleged from the Wanni), Karuna could not have held out for long. The LTTE has credited its near-bloodless victory over the rebel forces to its superior military tactics. But more is owed to Karuna's realisation of his limitations and his decision to let go. By ordering his cadres to disperse without putting up a fight, the former military strategist of the LTTE can take the credit for preventing a bloodbath. There were some casualties immediately after the LTTE struck but fighting back would have resulted in a much higher death toll — among the combatants on both sides and among civilians caught in the crossfire. After Karuna's confident declarations that the LTTE was a much weakened military force since his departure from it, retreat may not have been an easy decision for him but it was definitely the right choice.

Where does all this leave the peace process? At this stage, it is most convenient for all concerned — the Sri Lankan Government, Norway, and the LTTE — to pretend that Karuna was just a bump on the log that has now been axed out. At the most obvious level, he raised valid questions about the future of multi-ethnic eastern Sri Lanka, with its near equal populations of Tamils, Muslims and Sinhalese. At another level, his rebellion made it clear that this peace process is one between the Government and the LTTE to the exclusion of all other stake-holders. Sri Lanka's recent general election has produced a Parliament that represents every shade of opinion in the island. Even though President Chandrika Kumaratunga is still struggling with the task of government formation after her Freedom Alliance fell short of a majority, a bold vision, imagination and political will on all sides could yet turn this divided verdict into an opportunity for building a more inclusive and broad-based resolution to the country's Tamil question.

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