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Friday, Apr 23, 2004

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National - Elections 2004

Andhra Pradesh: anti-incumbency vs Vajpayee image

In contrast to Karnataka, there are obvious limits to Atal Bihari Vajpayee's image and popularity in Andhra Pradesh, says Harish Khare.

Conventional wisdom has it that it was the "Vajpayee image" that helped the Telugu Desam Party regain power in the State as well as enabled the TDP-BJP to walk away with 36 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in Andhra Pradesh in 1999. Five years later, the question, again, is: can the Vajpayee factor help the TDP overcome a very well pronounced anti-Government mood in Andhra Pradesh?

To be sure, the Vajpayee factor is very much discernible in Andhra Pradesh, as it was in the neighbouring Karnataka. The Prime Minister is perceived as a good man, a respected man, an elderly man, prone to do the right thing. According to a group of young men in Balangar mandal of Mehboobnagar district, the Vajpayee image is based on "solid achievements": improved relations with Pakistan, the Prime Minister has given rice for the poor in the drought years; has implemented Old Age Pension ("120 people in our village are getting the pension"), the Pradhan Mantri Sadak Yojana, etc.

The other elements that have added to the Vajpayee factor include the nationwide sense of achievement and pride during the Indian cricket team's tour of Pakistan. "Could a Congress government organise such a trip? They are busy about protecting their chair," argues rather heatedly B. Nagarajan, a pesticide marketing executive expert, who works in the Vijayawada region and is on leave in his town of Kodumur in Kurnool district. The young Mr. Nagarajan thinks that "the NDA coming back (to power) is 90 per cent compulsory."

However, the limits to the Vajpayee factor are also obvious. Unlike in Karnataka, where the BJP has sought space for itself as a political party in its own right, in Andhra Pradesh, the BJP is essentially seen as an appendix to the TDP. And the Andhra political matrix has changed dramatically since 1999 when Mr. Vajpayee could provide that extra edge to the TDP-BJP alliance. Because of the NDA Government's celebrated dependence on the Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister, N. Chandrababu Naidu, it is the TDP that has come to loom large and has crowded the BJP out of the public imagination.

Compared to the "Vajpayee wave" in Karnataka, three distinct caveats get introduced in Andhra Pradesh: first, Mr. Vajpayee is too old; even those who want him back believe he will be around only for a couple of years; second, Sonia Gandhi, as a member of Indira Gandhi's family, is not seen all that negatively; and, third, the Vajpayee image has to contend with the larger-than-life image that Mr. Naidu has carved out for himself. Mr. Naidu also occupies the same mental space as does Mr. Vajpayee: a "doer" and an able administrator; a man who gets money from the World Bank; and, a favourite of the middle classes, especially now that he has taken up cudgels against the naxalites. Unlike in neighbouring Karanataka where the BJP's public face, the inconsequential Ananth Kumar, cannot distract from the Vajpayee wave, in Andhra Pradesh, the "Vajpayee factor" gets complicated with the Babu image and the TDP Government's record.

Even though the Naidu Government has eased considerably the power situation, there is a massive resentment on account of the high tariffs. The brunt of higher tariffs is faced not only by the farmers in the rural areas but also by retail businessmen and the middle classes in small towns. The Congress has promised free power and the promise is seen as an election gimmick, but still the refrain remains: "Too many taxes; too much privatisation; he is selling-off public assets." Mr. Vajpayee is of little help on this count.

Roads are the most visible achievement of the Naidu Government. Even villages have workable roads. But that is it. "Roads can't give people food," argues Kasimbibi, a fruit-seller in Nagalapuram village near Kodumur town. Good, shining roads are no compensation for extensive lack of employment in small towns and villages. "Roads are okay but what about employment," asks Yakoob Khan, a small businessman in Kurnool town. "No jobs here; that is why we want our own Telangana," says a group of young men in Anasagar village of Mahboobnagar district.

But where "the Vajpayee factor" distinctly fails to make any dent is on the TDP's image as a pro-rich, elitist regime. The popular perception is that much of the World Bank money that has come the State's way, because of the Chief Minister's image as a "reformer", has ended with the TDP's favourite contractors and developers. The difference between the TDP's approach and that of the Congress is spelt out by B. Narsingha of Rajapur village: "The Congress believed in sharing the loot, while the TDP people keep it all to themselves."

To the extent the "Vajpayee factor" has to be a creation of media hype, Andhra Pradesh offers a lesson in limits of the hype. The Chief Minister is seen as a show-off. "All this publicity about [the] Janmabhoomi scheme or World Bank assistance — but where is the money," asks Srinivas Reddy, a garment-shop owner in Kurnool town. Or, take the case of Shadnagar town in Mahboobnagar district. A year ago, recalls a local doctor, Bill Gates and Mr. Naidu had travelled to the Government hospital to set up an AIDS centre. "But, no doctor performs operation without bribes," notes Dr. Ameer Iqbal.

As it is, there is no pronounced antagonism among Muslims towards the TDP and Mr. Naidu is no Narendra Modi, Mr. Vajpayee is not seen as winning additional votes for the TDP-BJP combine. Andhra Pradesh, thus, represents an interesting contrast to the Karnataka scenario and offers crucial insights into the limits of the Vajpayee factor.

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