The Hindu : Front Page : Most parties uncertain about eastern U.P.

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Sunday, Apr 25, 2004

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Front Page

Most parties uncertain about eastern U.P.

By Venkitesh Ramakrishnan

VARANASI, APRIL 24. The first phase of polling in Uttar Pradesh — the State that sends the maximum number of 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha — is on Monday but none of the major political formations here — BJP, SP , BSP and Congress — seems to have a clear idea whether they will improve upon the performance in the last election. The stakes are big for all in the 32 constituencies in eastern U.P. that go to the polls in the first phase but they are the highest for the BJP, which had proclaimed right through the campaign that it is crucial to boost its tally — it won 13 in 1999 — in this region in order to make a ``smooth return to power at the Centre.''

But the mood in the BJP's local leadership in the region is not one of optimism. A majority of the leaders that this correspondent spoke to on a stretch from Deoria to Varanasi admit that the ``India Shining'' and ``feel good'' campaign has not had much impact on this poverty ridden, backward area populated mostly by small farmers and agricultural labourers. ``No leader other than the former Chief Minister, Kalyan Singh, has drawn crowds and communicated successfully with the people,'' said one BJP activist at Deoria.

The BJP leaders in many constituencies said there had been a conspicuous shift of the Thakur community's vote towards the Samajwadi Party. Even in a seat like Allahabad, won by the BJP bigwig Murli Manohar Joshi in the last three elections, the going is uphill.

Party activists are doubtful whether Mr. Joshi will be able to hold on to his 72,000 votes majority of the last polls. ``Pramod Mahajan — the central leader in charge of U.P. — will have to come up with some magical trick to increase the tally in this region,'' was how a local BJP leader from Varanasi summed up the situation.

All this should naturally benefit the SP, the number two force in the region with 10 seats in 1999 but the party is also facing problems in retaining its Muslim-Yadav support base in full. In the Yadav-dominated Azamgarh, its sitting MP, Ramakant Yadav, is the BSP candidate this time. The Congress has also fielded the former Chief Minister, Ram Naresh Yadav. In this situation, SP activists hope that the portrayal of the Chief Minister, Mulayam Singh Yadav, as the ultimate symbol of ``Yadav pride'' will come to the party's aid.

The confusion among Muslim voters provoked by the consistent campaign of the Congress and some sections of the NDA that Mr. Yadav will support Atal Behari Vajpayee after the polls has also not helped the SP's cause. The party leadership, however, can draw consolation from the fact that the All-India Milli Council, a confederation of various Muslim organizations, has announced its support to 14 SP candidates in eastern UP.

Significantly, the Council is also supporting the Congress and its allies in 12 out of the 32 seats. This is the first time in 15 years that the Congress has found this kind of a support from the Council. The massive response evoked by the campaign of Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Vadra in the region must certainly have contributed to this decision. But the Congress is also not sure how far the Council's support would help in raising its tally from the three it had last time, in the context of the near-total lack of organisational machinery for the party.

The BSP, which had won five seats in the region in 1999, is to get the Milli Council's support in only three this time. Obviously, the party's flirtations with the BJP have not gone down well with the minority community.

The party workers are hoping that if they can poll Dalit votes in large numbers, Muslims would turn towards it even as the polling is in progress. Clearly, the battle will be fought till the last minute.

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