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Monday, Apr 26, 2004

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National - Elections 2004

Voter turnout: end of the democratic upsurge?

If U.P., M.P. and Rajasthan show a sharp decline, the turnout this time may be one of the lowest, says Yogendra Yadav.

Mass participation in Indian elections stands out for three features: First, the turnout does not follow the global trend of a steady decline; over the years, voting levels have either gone up or remained stable in India. Second, unlike most other democracies, the turnout does not go down here as one goes down the tiers of democracy; if anything Assembly and panchayat elections record higher levels of participation than the national elections. Third, unlike the Afro-Americans, the homeless and ethnic minorities in the West, the citizens at the lower end of social and economic hierarchy in India do not vote less than those at the top. If anything, the reverse is more true: a poor, Dalit and minority citizen is more likely to vote here than an upper caste, upper class Hindu. Indian democracy has seen a democratic upsurge from below in the last 15 years or so.

Will this election continue the trend or are we witnessing a closure of the democratic upsurge? This is one of the crucial questions today. The first signs from the constituencies that have already gone to the polls are not very promising. The correct turnout figures for the first phase of elections in the 142 constituencies (including the two in Tripura where polling took place on April 22) have just become available. Unlike the initial guesstimates put out by the Election Commission that tend to be quite off the mark, these are fairly reliable figures. It seems that notwithstanding an appeal from the President himself, the turnout this time may fall below the average turnout recorded in the 1999 Lok Sabha elections.

The overall voter turnout in these 142 constituencies is estimated at 57.7 per cent. These constituencies had recorded 60.4 per cent turnout in the 1999 Lok Sabha elections. Thus we have witnessed a decline of 2.7 percentage points in the turnout in the first phase. Since these constituencies were fairly representative of the country's overall turnout, one can project the final turnout in the country to be anywhere between 55 to 60 per cent, the lower end of the range of turnout in the last three decades. The first 15 years of India's electoral democracy saw a steady rise in voter turnout, from less than 50 per cent recorded in the first two general elections to above 60 per cent in the fourth general elections held in 1967. Since then the turnout in Lok Sabha elections has fluctuated around an average of 60 per cent. The last parliamentary elections stayed with this average, while the 1984, 1989 and the 1998 elections reported a little higher turnout and the 1991 and the 1996 fell below the average. If the first phase figures hold, the turnout in this election may be fairly close to the level recorded in 1996. If States like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan show a sharper decline, we could be looking at one of the lowest turnout in recent times.

The decline in turnout is not confined to any region, but cuts across most States that went to polls in the first phase. The three States holding simultaneous Assembly elections have a somewhat rosy picture to report, while it is not so for most other States. Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Orissa, the three States with Assembly elections, report voter turnout above 60 per cent. Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka had simultaneous polls in the 1999 elections as well. Compared to that the turnout has dropped slightly in these two States. Orissa did not have Assembly polls last time and therefore it appears to be an exceptional State where the turnout has gone up by nearly nine percentage points this time. Maharashtra held a simultaneous Assembly election last time but is conducting only Lok Sabha elections this time. The turnout in Maharashtra, around the national average of 57 per cent, shows a sharp drop of 9 percentage points. This trend is in keeping with the pattern witnessed in the last decade. Ever since the State has become the effective unit of political choice, Assembly elections have tended to record higher participation than Lok Sabha polls.

Most other States have recorded below average turnout. The level of voter turnout appears very different in different States, but that does not represent much change from last time. The first phase constituencies of Assam have reported a high turnout of 71 per cent, but that is two points below last time's turnout in these constituencies. Gujarat appears to be on the other extreme with as low as 45 per cent voting, but that is also 2 points below last time's figures, in keeping with the recent trend in this State devoid of any serious political competition. The drop is a little higher in Bihar and Chhattisgarh and has been compensated by a surprising and substantial increase in the six constituencies of Jharkhand.

The same pattern holds even in the smaller States that normally have an independent political trajectory. Among the hill States of the Northeast, Meghalaya, Mizoram and Tripura have registered a small decline in turnout, as have Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman and Diu, the two Union Territories on the western coast. Andaman and Nicobar has experienced a higher turnout. So has the Manipur Outer Constituency, where the absence of a boycott call by the National Socialist Council of Nagaland has encouraged better turnout in the Naga areas of this hilly and sensitive constituency. The two constituencies of Jammu and Kashmir that have gone to polls have registered a very low turnout, 13 points lower than in 1999. But that is no indicator of the mood in the valley for the real surprise here is the exceptionally low turnout of 29 per cent recorded in the Jammu constituency. At 23 per cent, Baramula's turnout is not very surprising, since the figures for 1999 Lok Sabha elections here were believed to have been inflated.

The final all-India turnout in this election will now depend largely on how the north Indian States behave. Unlike election results, the turnout levels are not subject to wild fluctuations. It would be very surprising if the remaining parts of the big States that go to the polls today report a level very different from the one reported in the first phase. States like West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu tend to record high turnout and the level does not change dramatically from elections to election. It all then depends on the large Hindi speaking states like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. In recent times, U.P. has not recorded very high turnouts, despite very keen multi-polar competition. Rajasthan and M.P. may suffer from voter fatigue and lack of keen competition. If these States witness a sharp drop in voter enthusiasm, the final figure could be closer to 55 than to 60.

It may be premature to draw political conclusions from the turnout patterns reported here. For notwithstanding passionate arguments about a certain level of turnout pointing to a certain kind of outcome, there is little systematic evidence to support any theory. All one can say that we are not witnessing a nationwide `feel good' wave, but that has already been indicated by the first round of exit polls. One could say that a higher turnout in Jharkhand does not augur well for the ruling BJP, but it is not clear if the same is true of Orissa. Low turnout may work to the benefit of the RJD in Bihar and the BJP in Gujarat, but it is not clear what its consequences may be for Maharashtra. In any case, this speculation is best avoided, for there are better indicators of outcome than the turnout.

More significantly, it may be too early to draw any firm conclusion about the implications of this election for the democratic upsurge mentioned in the beginning. For that would require a detailed social break-up of the pattern of political participation in this election, something we do not know at this stage. The tables presented here spell out the recent pattern. The National Election Study series of the CSDS has shown that the turnout among Dalits and Hindu OBCs has tended to be higher than the upper caste Hindus. The turnout among Muslims shows a dip in the early 1990s, but has again picked up and is above the national average. The Adivasis tend to be concentrated among the reserved (ST) seats and we can find about their turnout from the voting in these constituencies. Earlier the level used to be substantially lower than the `general' constituencies. Recent elections show a sharp reduction in this gap and it is possible that the gap may be covered in this election. The rural areas had overtaken the turnout levels in urban centres more than a decade ago. If there is an area of deficiency today, it is the urban areas and the middle class localities within these. Women's turnout continues to be lower than that of men, but the gap has reduced considerably. The final figures will tell us if the leap taken in this direction in the 1998 election will be continued this time.

These might look like academic if not statistical questions at a time when everyone is focused on the outcome of the electoral horse race, and on whether NDA will fall short of the magic number. But monitoring the level and quality of participation in an electoral democracy is no less important a concern. It reminds us of the point of this horse race in the first place.

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