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BJP struggling to retain seats in eastern U.P.

By J P Shukla

LUCKNOW, APRIL 25 .The Bharatiya Janata Party has been faced with an uphill task to retain its position in eastern Uttar Pradesh slated to go to polls tomorrow from where the party had captured 13 of 32 seats in the 1999 Lok Sabha elections. BJP calculations have gone awry on several counts and even optimists in the saffron forces feel it would be a surprise, if the party is able to hold ground in the region.

The BJP was among the first to start its campaign with its slogan of "India shining''. The party also led others in the selection of candidates and finalisation of election strategy. However, as the campaigning intensified it was observed that during the past five years the party had suffered losses in respect of its popularity because of various reasons. Internal bickering over selection of candidates further increased the party's woes as also the absence of emotive issues to enthuse its supporters.

Eastern Uttar Pradesh had been in the thick of the Ram temple movement which was the single most important factor for the emergence of the BJP as a force to reckon with in the region. But the party itself blunted the issue with a view to presenting a liberal face of itself. The change in the BJP stance did reduce the hostility of the Muslims towards the party but that did not mean any large scale support shift in its favour.

As compared to the BJP, the Congress campaign started with a dull note but picked up as the day of reckoning approached. The strategic decision to field Rahul Gandhi from Amethi proved a boon for the party as the candidature of the young Gandhi received almost immediate approval. Rahul Gandhi also became a star attraction in other constituencies where he went to have his road show towards the end of the campaigning period.

The Congress had won only three seats - Amethi, Rae Bareli and Pratapgarh - from eastern U.P. in 1999. This time the party is in real fight in several other constituencies, including Varanasi, Salempur, Faizabad and Padrauna, besides these three, as the public response suggested. If the party is able to convert its increased popularity among Muslims into votes, its tally might increase.

The Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party have been in fight in most of the constituencies of the region excepting the Rae Bareli-Amethi belt. The Bahujan Samaj Party had especially been cautious about maintaining a hold over its vote bank, no matter whether the party candidate won or lost in a particular constituency. The SP had similarly tried to retain the loyalty of the backward castes that had been its traditional supporters. The party also made special efforts to minimise the impact of any shift in the voting pattern of Muslims, who had stood with the party ever since 1990.

The BSP had won three seats and the SP, nine in the 1999 elections. They have been hoping to gain from the losses of the BJP this time.

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