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EVENLY MATCHED

THE RE-ELECTION CAMPAIGN of the United States President, George W. Bush, has regained momentum after appearing to lose steam. Mr. Bush has closed the gap with the Democratic challenger, John Kerry, that showed in opinion polls conducted earlier this year. This comeback will be particularly gratifying to the incumbent since it occurred after a fortnight in which the policies and record of the administration took a beating. Senior officials failed to convince a bipartisan commission enquiring into the traumatic events of September 11, 2001 that they had done all that was possible to prevent terrorist attacks. The situation in Iraq imploded over the same period with a broad-based national resistance movement taking on the might of the U.S.-led occupation forces. These developments combined to blunt Mr. Bush's claim that he alone could provide leadership of the quality required to steer the country through a time of trial. The surveys done before this period also indicated that a significant majority believed Mr. Kerry would be a better manager of the economy than the incumbent President. While the current trends indicate that public perceptions of the state of the economy will shape the electoral outcome, Mr. Bush has cut into his rival's lead. In addition, despite his recent troubles, he retains the edge he had over his Democratic opponent on issues of "national security."

This surge in Mr. Bush's fortunes might prove ephemeral, especially if the voters come to understand the import of his disastrous defence and foreign policies. Many Americans now realise that the invasion of Iraq had nothing to do with the reasons and justifications advanced. Intense investigations failed to unearth any weapons of mass destruction and the Bush administration cannot even claim that it effectuated a regime change when it has reinstated purged Ba'athists as officers in a quisling army. U.S. military families, a key constituent of the Republican base, are already disturbed over the ever-mounting casualty rate among the troops and the repeated extensions of their tours of duty. As the electoral debate heats up after the summer recess, voters are likely to pay more attention to the Democratic argument that their safety will be imperilled if the Bush administration is allowed to persist with its West Asian policies. Washington's endorsement of an Israeli plan to annex large chunks of Palestinian territory has further intensified the anger and hatred that Arabs feel towards America on account of the large-scale killing of innocents in the military operations under way in Iraq. The bomb attacks that recently rocked some Arab capitals provided an indication that extremist groups were gathering strength.

A recently launched publicity blitz appears to have contributed significantly to the improvement in Mr. Bush's ratings. However, the Republican hope that the huge war chest at their disposal would help them deny advertisement space to their opponents was not borne out. The Kerry campaign raised much more money than it was expected to and has started to compete fiercely in the 18 States where both parties are evenly matched. Mr. Kerry, who struck a chord with voters disgruntled with the current administration's economic policies, has still not convinced his compatriots that he will provide strong leadership. The Massachusetts Senator made a start in this direction by making public the record of his service in the U.S. military during the Vietnam War. This record shows that his superiors considered him a decisive and competent officer. Mr. Bush is faced with a formidable challenge that will only get tougher if the Democratic candidate stakes out clear positions on issues that matter to America and the world. On the other hand, equivocation and slipperiness on such issues — two Kerry political traits, it appears — are likely to help Mr. Bush regain the initiative.

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