The Hindu : National / Elections 2004 : Caste, class composition and the Capital

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Wednesday, Apr 28, 2004

National

National - Elections 2004

Caste, class composition and the Capital

The BJP's structural advantage and the Congress' recent gains in the Capital add up to one thing: a very close contest, says Yogendra Yadav.

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If the iron law of incumbents not losing any election in the first year were to be applied to Delhi, the outcome of the seven seats in the national capital should hold no surprise. The Assembly elections were held here in December 2003 with the Congress scoring an impressive victory. If the Vidhan Sabha voting pattern were to be repeated in the Lok Sabha elections, the Congress should win all the seven seats. Even a five percentage point swing against the ruling party can snatch only one seat from it. If the BJP has reasons to be smug in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, the Congress should be sitting pretty in Delhi.

If this smugness has not infected the Congressmen in Delhi, there are good reasons for it. The national capital tends to favour the BJP when it comes to the Lok Sabha elections. Ever since the Congress picked all the seven seats in the Rajiv whirlwind of 1984, the party has never won more than two seats in any Lok Sabha election in Delhi. During this period the Congress came to power in Delhi and has managed to win a second term. But it feels shaky when it comes to the Lok Sabha contest. Delhi's Congressmen will not forget the 1999 Lok Sabha election in a hurry. They had just won a massive mandate in the Vidhan Sabha elections held in November 1998. But they faced a complete wipe-out in the Lok Sabha elections held in 1999, within the first year of incumbency. That experience continues to haunt the Congress as it prepares for another Lok Sabha election fresh from victory in an Assembly election.

Delhi's class composition may also appear to work to the BJP's advantage. After all, this metropolis has a concentration of those sections of society who have benefited from the new economic policy, precisely the sort of sections the BJP has targeted with the `India Shining' and `feel good' campaigns. The Prime Minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee's, popularity among the middle classes and white collar workers will also work to the BJP's advantage. So will the caste composition, as a majority of Delhi's electorate are from the upper castes. The BJP has always enjoyed solid support among the Punjabis in Delhi. The BJP will be hoping to create something of an Atal wave and reverse the electoral debacle that it faced a few months ago. Or, at any rate, that is what the party had hoped when the electoral race began a couple of months ago.

Things have changed since then. The reality today is more complex and unlikely to allow either the BJP or the Congress to take these seven seats for granted. Delhi may have a greater middle class presence than other States, but the fact remains that Delhi is predominantly a working class city. Two of its largest constituencies, Outer Delhi and East Delhi, are dominated by migrant workers. The Congress has generally done better among the working classes. In fact the voting behaviour in Delhi is a text-book illustration of class-based voting: the poorer the voter, the higher the chances of voting for the Congress and vice versa for the BJP.

The Congress has got around the caste-community structure of Delhi. Sheila Dixit has been instrumental in winning a substantial upper caste support for the Congress, while developing a small middle class base for the party. And it makes up for its disadvantage among the upper castes by gaining a big lead among the Dalits and Muslims who constitute about one-third of the electorate.

The BJP's structural advantage in any Lok Sabha election and the Congress' recent advantage in the wake of the Assembly election victory might balance each other and create a very keen contest this time. The selection of candidates by the Congress and the BJP appears to have made the battle even closer. The Congress could be accused of bringing `tainted' politicians back in, but no one can accuse it of giving tickets to non-serious candidates. The BJP has gone for its sitting MPs, who may suffer from some degree of incumbency disadvantage.

Perhaps sensing this, one sitting MP, Vijay Goel, shifted his constituency from Chandni Chowk to Sadar. The Congress candidate, Kapil Sibal, appears to be on a strong wicket in the Chandni Chowk constituency now, not the least because the JD (S) candidate who used to take a substantial chunk of Muslim votes away from Congress has decided to retire in his favour. The return of Sajjan Kumar, one of the Congressmen named by civil society groups as an accused in the anti-Sikh riots of 1984 but exonerated by courts, has ensured that Union Minister Sahib Singh Verma has a tough contest on his hands. Similarly the nomination of Sheila Dixit's son from East Delhi is sure to galvanise the party to work towards his success, no mean achievement for Delhi's Congress.

On the other hand, the BJP has reasons to feel secure in South Delhi, a relatively prosperous area, where the sitting MP, Vijay Kumar Malhotra, faces R.K. Anand. The BJP has done better in Delhi Sadar constituency, represented earlier by Madan Lal Khurana, but now the Congress' Jagdish Tytler appears to be locked in a keen contest with Mr. Goel. The New Delhi constituency tends to vote on national issues and that might work to the advantage of Union Minister Jagmohan, but he faces a tough challenge from the young and dynamic Congress leader Ajay Maken.

The seventh constituency, Karol Bagh, is a reserved seat and the sitting BJP MP, Anita Arya, faces tough competition from Krishna Tirath, a minister in the Delhi Government. The BSP's decision to field candidates in all the constituencies can hurt the Congress here and in other constituencies in the city where Dalits constitute one-fifth of the electorate.