The Hindu : Tamil Nadu News : Will the bastions stay or be swept in a wave?

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Wednesday, Apr 28, 2004

Tamil Nadu

Tamil Nadu

Will the bastions stay or be swept in a wave?

By V. Jayanth

CHENNAI, APRIL 27. At a time when opinion polls are pointing to a sweep for the Democratic Progressive Alliance (DPA), a look at the results of the last eight elections — since 1977, when the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam captured power in Tamil Nadu and became a force to reckon with — reveals that at least one-third of the 39 Lok Sabha constituencies can be described as bastions of a particular party.

There are at least 13 constituencies which have returned candidates of the same party in six out of eight general elections. Mayiladuturai takes the cake, having remained with one version of the Congress all through in eight successive polls.

The question now is whether these constituencies will remain the fortress of these parties or be carried away by any wave, sweeping the State, as it happened in 1996.

From 1977 to 1999, the Mayiladuturai constituency remained with either the Indian National Congress or the Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC). The Congress candidate, Mani Shankar Aiyer, will be trying to maintain the tempo this time too.

In the alphabetical order, Arakonam returned Congress candidates, including of the TMC, six times in a row till 1996. The AIADMK wrested the seat in 1998 and the DMK captured the constituency in 1999.

Similarly, Cuddalore was another Congress domain in six successive elections, again till 1996, when the TMC won the seat. As in Arakonam, the AIADMK bagged the seat in 1998 and gave it up to the DMK the next year.

Dindigul, which has a special place in the history and evolution of the ruling AIADMK, has been the party's favourite hunting ground, where it won six times. The DMK last won the seat in 1980, while the TMC emerged successful in 1996.

Gobichettipalayam is yet another AIADMK favourite, where the party has romped home victorious six times. While the Congress won the seat in 1977, the DMK wrested it in 1996. The former TNCC president, E.V.K.S. Elangovan, is contesting from the constituency this time.

Though Chennai has been considered a DMK fort, it is Chennai North, which returned its candidates six times, leaving the seat to the Congress twice — D. Pandian contested on the Congress symbol. Chennai Central has returned the DMK five times and Chennai South only during the past three elections. The Congress has kept this seat four times.

The temple town of Madurai has been a Congress den, with the constituency returning the party nominees five times over and the TMC once, in 1996. Under the seat-sharing arrangement, the CPI(M) is contesting this time to try and retain the seat.

One constituency which the Congress found very difficult to give up in the seat-sharing agreement this time is Nagercoil apart from Pondicherry. In this southern-most constituency, the Congress and the TMC between themselves have won seven times out of eight, with the BJP bagging the seat in 1999. It is now trying to retain the seat.

Another Congress fort in the south has been Palani, where the party's candidates have emerged successful six times, including once through the TMC, which subsequently merged with the Congress.

An AIADMK citadel in the lush estates of Theni is the Periyakulam constituency, where the ruling party's nominees have won six times, losing twice to the DMK. The AIADMK's T.T.V. Dinakaran is trying his best to retain the seat for himself and the party this time. The Congress or TMC candidates have been elected six times from Rasipuram, which has also returned the AIADMK twice.

Similarly, Tiruchendur has been represented by the Congress or TMC nominees on six occasions, just as Tirunelveli returned AIADMK candidates in six elections. In contrast to such constituencies is Vellore. Over the last eight elections, it has returned Congress candidates in two successive elections — 1989 and 1991 — and the PMK in the last two elections.

The Congress (O), an Independent (Muslim League), the AIADMK and the DMK have each won from here just once. This time, the DPA has offered the seat to the Indian Union Muslim League. Party sources in the DMK and the AIADMK do not hesitate to explain that the Congress or TMC victories since 1977, except on a couple of occasions, must be seen in the perspective of its alliance with either of them.

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