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Friday, Apr 30, 2004

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THE CRISIS IN NEPAL

KING GYANENDRA OF Nepal has only himself to blame for the suspicion with which the country's democratic parties have treated his offer of negotiations to end the present political standoff in Kathmandu. Since the beginning of April, an alliance of five parties has spearheaded protests against the King's apparent moves towards an executive monarchy, paralysing the capital every day with marches and sit-ins. Already under pressure from a violent Maoist insurgency, King Gyanendra appears to have backed off from an escalating political confrontation by inviting the five-party alliance, which includes the Nepali Congress and the Communist Party (United Marxist-Leninist) — Nepal's two largest political parties — for negotiations. But the alliance understandably smells a ploy to defuse its agitation rather than any real desire by the monarch to address the demand for a return to the hard-won 1990 Constitution and its system of multi-party democracy that he disrupted in 2002. Since sacking the elected government that year and usurping executive powers that are not his under the Constitution, Gyanendra Bir Bikram Shah Deva, who came into the kingship unexpectedly after the regicide at Narayanhiti Palace in June 2001, has made no secret of his discontent with being a mere constitutional monarch. Despite paying periodic lip service to a return to democracy during his two-year reign, King Gyanendra has worked to undermine political parties, criticising and questioning their role. The current round of protests, the most intense since his unconstitutional acts of two years ago, erupted soon after he declared the "strong bond" between himself and the people as the "cornerstone" of Nepali nationalism.

While the onus is on the King to convince the political parties that he sincerely wants to return to the suspended 1990 Constitution, the five-party alliance cannot turn its back on engaging the monarch because that is the only realistic way it can seek to negotiate a restoration of the democratic process. But first, the political parties must demonstrate a unity of purpose. Over the last two years, King Gyanendra was able shrewdly to manipulate the divisions among the pro-democracy parties to perpetuate his rule. The alliance is agreed that the way forward is to establish an all-party transitional government. Undoubtedly, this is the course of action it must pursue in any eventual talks with the King as it would be the least rancorous. Alternatives such as the reinstatement of the sacked Deuba Government or of the dissolved Parliament would be fraught with more political conflict. But the alliance's inability to project a consensus candidate to head the all-party government could once again provide the King space to play his divide-and-rule games. Moreover, fighting over an office that is to be filled by royal appointment undercuts the very basis of the pro-democracy agitation. The five-party alliance must act on the clear understanding that the sole mandate of a consensus Prime Minister would be to head a transitional government that would pave the way to democratic elections — which the King has promised to hold before April 2005.

A resolution of the political crisis is essential if Nepal is to come to grips with the issues underlying the eight-year-old Maoist "people's war" that has taken more than 9,000 lives. The King, who cited the escalating insurgency as one of the reasons for taking over the reins of government in 2002, mistakenly believed he could cut the ground under the political parties by negotiating peace with the Maoists. He failed. The talks broke down last year and with that the ceasefire. Since then, despite Indian and United States assistance to the Royal Nepal Army to control the insurgency, the Maoists have rapidly added to the territory under their control. Their growing influence has underlined the urgency with which the political parties must work towards the restoration of the democratic process in Nepal, defeating an autocratic monarch's designs.

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