The Hindu : Kerala News : Religion, group factors to decide outcome

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Saturday, May 01, 2004

Kerala

Kerala - Others

Religion, group factors to decide outcome

By Biju Govind

MANJERI, APRIL 30. The sleepy and dusty towns and villages in Malappuram have woken up to the clarion call of the electoral battle. Mike-fitted jeeps and autorickshaws criss-cross the narrow lanes announcing the names of candidates. Makeshift election booths have come up in many places. Fluttering party flags, colourful banners and decorative poll posters, street-corner meetings in evenings - these are now familiar scenes in the Manjeri Lok Sabha constituency.

The sound and fury of electioneering have risen to high decibels as only a fortnight is left for the Lok Sabha polls on May 10. Major contestants are leaving no stone unturned to woo the electorate. All of them are now concentrating on Assembly and block-wise campaigning.

Since the Manjeri constituency stretches from Beypore in the coastal belt of Kozhikode district to Nilambur in Malappuram district, the candidates are finding it difficult to cover the entire constituency. They have to cover almost 150 kms at a stretch apart from touching the interiors of Manjeri, Malappuram, Wandur, Kondotty and Kunnamangalam Assembly constituencies.

The Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) candidate, K. P. A. Majeed and the CPI (M) candidate, T. K. Hamsa, are in the second lap of the electioneering. In the first round, they met opinion leaders, religious heads and other important people, including businessmen, in the constituency. While the party cadres are conducting house-to-house campaigns, the candidates are focussing on constituency-wise campaigns. The BJP nominee, Uma Unni, a debutante, is also not far behind in the systematic campaign adopted by both the IUML and the CPI (M).

Unlike in other parts of the State where the exit poll results and the Chief Minister A. K. Antony's Navodhana Yatra which have roused the UDF workers, it is a different tune in the Manjeri constituency. Mr. Majeed's poll managers feel that Mr. Antony's tour did attract fairly large crowds but has not changed the perception of the ordinary Muslim voters. To make matters worse, the League leaders suspect that the Congress workers, especially in Wandur and Nilambur Assembly segments, may ditch their candidate. Wandur and Nilambur are Assembly segments where the League national leader, E. Ahmed, received almost over 20,000 votes each more than the CPI (M) in the last Lok Sabha elections.

Usually the Congress and League are at loggerheads in Malappuram district. But at the time of elections, both of them tend to sink their differences to vote for the UDF. This time, however, the bonhomie is not seen at the grassroots. Some Congress leaders are even disappointed at the nomination of Mr. Majeed. They feel that Mr. Majeed hobnobbed with the CPI (M) and was the architect of the CPI(M)-League alliance in the last local body polls. Besides, there is a threat from the powerful Sunni faction led by A. P. Kanthapuram Aboobacker Musaliar, which has a strong following in Kunnamangalam, Beypore and Manjeri Assembly segments. Kunnamangalam and Beypore are the constituencies where Mr. Ahmed received the least number of votes in the last elections when compared to that of other Assembly constituencies.

As of now, what the campaigning indicates is that for the first time in the history of the Lok Sabha polls in the Manjeri constituency, the IUML is actually facing a serious challenge. In all the previous elections, the party candidate, whoever it be, had won defeating its nearest opponent by handsome margins.

However the situation appears to be similar to the Lok Sabha elections in 1984 when the CPI (M) stalwart, E. K. Imbichibava, took on the then IUML candidate, Ebrahim Sulaiman Sait. Although Mr. Sait romped home by getting over 50 per cent of the total votes polled, the party had to work overtime knocking at every doors to see that each voter went to the booths on the poll day. Nearly 77.4 per cent of the electorate voted in that elections.

The League members think that only a high percentage of polling in the Lok Sabha elections will save them from any embarrassment at the hustings. This was also stressed by the Chief Minister during his Navodhana Yatra reception-meetings. He had called upon the voters to exercise their franchise in full swing. Even when the total percentage of polling stood at 66.7 in the 1999 elections, Mr. E. Ahmed won by a margin of 1.21 lakhs. The League poll managers know that Mr. Majeed may not be able to maintain that huge lead but can at least win by some 50,000 votes only if the voting percentage increased. The major Sunni faction under the stewardship of the Muslim League is supporting Mr. Majeed who belongs to the Mujahid sect.

Acknowledging that a low voting percentage would favour them to conquer the Muslim League stranglehold, the CPI (M) strategists are not going for a high voltage campaign as in the past. They believe that a 9 to 10 per cent of the electorate swinging against the Muslim League also means Mr. T. K. Hamsa will win the elections. Mr. Hamsa is also heavily banking on the support of the A. P. Sunni faction and hoping that other myriad Muslim groups like Jamat-e-Islami Hind and the NDF and parties like the PDP and the INL would extend support.

Meanwhile, the BJP candidate is concentrating on the Assembly segments in the constituency where the party has some influence. In Beypore, Kunnamangalam and Kondotty constituencies, BJP candidates usually polled over 15,000 votes each. Ms. Uma Unni is hoping to get over a lakh votes this time.

Despite the development planks aired by all the candidates, it is actually religion, sect and group factors that decide the outcome of the election in this Muslim heartland.

Printer friendly page
Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

Kerala

News Update

Stories in this Section

Religion, group factors to decide outcome

Selection of Prime Minister after polls: Yechuri

Murder accused identified