The Hindu : Opinion / News Analysis : Too close to call

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Sunday, May 02, 2004

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Opinion - News Analysis

Too close to call

THERE IS perhaps no other State that can be compared to Kerala when it comes to electoral contests and outcomes. The thin band that separates most winners from losers, and the high elasticity in voter preference both exhilarate and frustrate electoral crystal gazers. The 2004 Lok Sabha election, for which polling will take place in the final phase on May 10, promises to be no different, the only rider being the undercurrent of anti-incumbency that seems to be rocking the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF).

First the bare facts. Kerala has 20 Lok Sabha seats and an electorate of a little over 2.10 crores. In 1999, the UDF won 11 seats (Congress: eight, Indian Union Muslim League: two and Kerala Congress-Mani: one) and the Left Democratic Front (LDF), then in power in the State, won the remaining nine seats (Communist Party of India-Marxist: eight and the Kerala Congress-Joseph: one).

The NDA got to open its account in Kerala by default later when P.C. Thomas, who had got elected on the KC (M) ticket, quit the party and became the Minister of State for Law in the Vajpayee Government as a representative of the Indian Federal Democratic Party (IFDP). That brought down the UDF tally to 10. It suffered further erosion in strength when the LDF-backed independent candidate, Sebastian Paul, wrested the Ernakulam seat from the Congress in the 2003 Lok Sabha byelection following the death of the incumbent, George Eden.

The UDF had a vote share of 46.94, the LDF 43.65 and the NDA 7.91 per cent in 1999. There was an estimated 5 percentage point-plus swing in favour of the UDF in the 2001 Assembly election resulting in the Congress-led alliance securing 100 out of the 140 Assembly seats.

The UDF's vote share went up to 49.5 per cent. The LDF's share, as compared to the 1999 Lok Sabha election, stayed firm at 43.7 per cent, but it marked a fall of nearly two percentage points when compared to the CPI (M)-led alliance's vote share in the 1996 Assembly election. The sharpest fall was evident in the case of the BJP, which could get only 5.04 per cent of the votes polled. This was attributed to the transfer of the BJP votes to the UDF.

The main contest in the State is between the two rival fronts this time as well. This notwithstanding, a strong fight is being put up by the BJP in Thiruvananthapuram where it has fielded the Union Minister of State, O. Rajagopal, and a stiff contest is shaping up in Muvattupuzha where P.C. Thomas is trying his luck this time as an NDA candidate. These are the only two constituencies witnessing serious three-cornered contests.

The LDF had hit the campaign trail in a confident frame of mind. Its leaders are convinced that at least 12 seats are theirs for the asking. The UDF, caught in the murky waters of factional feud and mudslinging till the other day, is trying hard to make up for lost time and goodwill. As things stand today, it is advantage LDF.

However, with a week to go for the polling and an impending two-day tour of the State by the Congress president, Sonia Gandhi, and her daughter, Priyanka Vadra, on May 5 and 6, the LDF's advantage could wear off by a fair degree. Also, Kerala has traditionally shown a pro-Congress tilt in national elections and if it becomes apparent that the Congress is going fare better at the national level, the Congress and its allies might well achieve a reversal of fortunes. That is where it becomes a near-even battle.

Further, in a State where nine out of 20 seats were won last time by a margin of less than 20,000 votes, and five by a margin of just about 10,000 votes it is hard to say which way the verdict will go.

Party politics apart, there are other factors, unlike in the 2001 Assembly election, that favour the LDF. The crisis in the farm and plantation sectors and traditional industries is one. The State has so far witnessed suicides by close to 20 drought-hit and debt-burdened farmers, even as the Congress leaders were busy in a slug-fest over power and pelf. Before exit polls started pointing to a revival of the Congress' fortunes and the Chief Minister, A.K. Antony, launched the aptly titled `Navodhana Yatra' — to revive the sagging morale of the UDF cadres — from one end of the State to the other, the party was faced with the threat of being swamped by a wave of voter resentment over a wasted Assembly poll mandate. It is still early days to hazard a guess whether the party and its allies have reached safer shores, but there are sure signs that the election is no longer a total write-off for the UDF.

The 2001 Assembly election saw major communal outfits in the State rallying behind the UDF and the Hindutva forces indulging in `tactical voting' to send the LDF packing. There was much in the LDF's style of governance to invite the wrath of not just the communal outfits but also the neutral voters. This time round, it might well be the turn of the Congress and the UDF to receive such treatment at the hands of the electorate, despite Mr. Antony continuing to enjoy the goodwill of the people.

The Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam is no longer solidly behind the UDF and the Nair Service Society is playing a guarded hand. The Syrian Christians, who have traditionally backed the Congress and its allies, are also a restive lot these days. With the BJP on the ascendant at the national level, the upper crust Christians had been bracing to do business with it. It remains to be seen how they will act now that the exit polls have begun to show the BJP on a downslide.

A major headache for the UDF this time, as in the Ernakulam Lok Sabha by-poll, will be the way the Muslim votes go. The resentment generated by Mr. Antony's statement that Muslims were cornering much more than was due to them by applying pressure tactics is yet to wear thin. There is also considerable resentment among several Muslim groups such as the People's Democratic Party (PDP) and the National Development Front (NDF) over a host of issues.

These include Mr. Antony's perceived pampering of the Hindutva forces after the Marad incidents, the low-key response of the Congress to U.S.' aggression in Iraq and Israeli raids on Palestinian settlements, and the treatment meted out to the ailing PDP leader, Abdul Nasir Maudany, who has been in a Coimbatore jail. In 2001, the UDF went out of its way to woo the PDP vote with the promise that it would get Mr. Maudany out of jail once it was elected to power. The UDF not only did not keep its word, but also opposed Mr. Maudany being sent to Kerala on parole.

The LDF is also not without its share of problems. While the BJP has been trying to dub it as the `B' team of the Congress, the UDF has been asking people not `to risk' their votes by voting for the LDF. `Where was the need to vote for LDF when the Left would in any case be forced to support the Congress at the Centre' is the question being posed by the UDF leaders. Mr. Antony himself has been unsparing in his attack on the CPI (M). The CPI (M), he has been telling the voters, has been the primary obstacle to development initiatives in the State.

The BJP is making an all-out bid to properly open its account in the State with this election and there are once again charges that it has entered into a tacit understanding with the Congress and the UDF to see its nominee, Mr. Rajagopal, in exchange for votes for the Congress nominees in constituencies such as Mukundapuram where senior Congress leader, K. Karunakaran's daughter, Padmaja Venugopal, is in the fray.

The BJP is certain to put up a better show this time, particularly in Thiruvananthapuram, but whether it would open its account in Kerala this time is far from certain. The BJP could in the past transfer its votes to the Congress without a care for its implications at the national level. No longer can it do so given the perceived revival of the Congress. Nor can it spite the Congress by giving its votes to the LDF for that would strengthen the CPI(M) in Kerala. If it decides to indulge in tactical voting to reduce the number of Congress MPs from Kerala, it would be doing so with the long term objective of complicating matters for any non-BJP arrangement at the Centre.

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