The Hindu : Opinion / News Analysis : With an eye on the future

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Sunday, May 02, 2004

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Opinion - News Analysis

With an eye on the future

In Tamil Nadu, while the DPA is treating the Lok Sabha election as a rehearsal for the Assembly polls, the AIADMK and the BJP are trying to keep the focus on the choice of the next Prime Minister, writes Suresh Nambath.

Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee with Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa.

TAMIL NADU, like neighbouring Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, seems to be in the midst of simultaneous elections to the Lok Sabha and the Assembly. Regional concerns, more than national issues, dominate the campaign.

The Congress-inclusive Democratic Progressive Alliance led by the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam is treating the Lok Sabha election as a rehearsal for the Assembly poll, which is just two years away. The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and the Bharatiya Janata Party combine is, however, trying to keep the focus on the choice of the next Prime Minister.

DMK chief M. Karunanidhi and Congress president Sonia Gandhi...making new friends.

The DMK quit the National Democratic Alliance not because of serious differences with the Vajpayee Government. The unstated, but obvious, reason was that the party wanted to forge a strong alliance in the State against the AIADMK. As a non-BJP alliance alone could have attracted the Congress and the Left parties, there was no option but to leave the NDA. The other main allies, Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and Pattali Makkal Katchi, would have been equally comfortable in the company of the BJP.

Indeed, they heaped praise on Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee before walking out of the NDA and joining the DMK-led Democratic Progressive Alliance. The main charge of the DMK, the MDMK and the PMK against the BJP was that it was moving closer to the AIADMK.

While the MDMK was quick to decide on joining the DMK, the PMK needed an assurance on seat-sharing before jumping on to the bandwagon. The Congress and the Left were already waiting for a non-BJP, non-AIADMK alternative front to emerge.

The end-result is a formidable seven-party front, which is far ahead of the AIADMK-BJP alliance in terms of established vote share. Even a conservative estimate would put the DPA in the lead by at least 10 percentage points.

The two fronts have tried to run the campaign on different tracks. The DPA has trained its guns on the AIADMK and the Chief Minister, Jayalalithaa. The AIADMK and the BJP have targeted the Congress and the Leader of the Opposition, Sonia Gandhi.

The DMK and the BJP were not in the line of fire too often. While the AIADMK was on the defensive when it came to regional issues, the DMK was on the back-foot fending off criticism on the choice of Sonia Gandhi as a prime ministerial candidate.

Ms. Jayalalithaa was more aggressive than the BJP in raking up the `foreign origin' of Ms. Gandhi as a campaign issue. The choice before the people, she repeatedly said, was between the "experienced" Mr. Vajpayee and the "political novice," Ms. Gandhi. Apparently calculating that the Vajpayee factor was a plus for the BJP, the DMK countered by raising doubts about Mr. Vajpayee continuing as Prime Minister for a full term even if the NDA were to return to power.

The DMK leader, M. Karunanidhi, even described the AIADMK-BJP alliance as an alliance between the AIADMK and the Deputy Prime Minister, L.K. Advani (and not the BJP). Other DPA leaders followed up on this by suggesting that Mr. Vajpayee was not fully in charge of the NDA. The attempt was to portray Mr. Advani as the real power centre of the NDA, and thus prevent pro-Vajpayee sentiments from aiding in any adding to the vote kitty of the AIADMK-BJP alliance. Mr. Vajpayee has therefore not been subjected to vicious attacks by the DPA in the manner Ms. Gandhi was by the AIADMK.

Both camps probably reasoned that Mr. Vajpayee held greater appeal for the electorate than Ms. Gandhi, and that Ms. Gandhi scored over Mr. Advani in this respect.

The DPA tried to keep the focus on development issues, the drought and the "non-performance" of the AIADMK Government.

The AIADMK and the BJP, quite understandably, wanted to reduce the election to the level of personalities, a simple choice between Mr. Vajpayee and Ms. Gandhi.

The only twist to the two-month campaign period has come from film star Rajnikant, who announced that he and his fans association would support the AIADMK-BJP combine in the six constituencies where the PMK was in the fray.

Mr. Rajnikant was irked by the repeated criticism made by PMK leader, S. Ramadoss, that his films were a bad influence on youth. Some personal remarks against the actor added fuel to the fire. The film star, who considers himself close to both the DMK and the BJP, was in a dilemma as the PMK was in the company of the DMK and the AIADMK, another party he dislikes, was in the same alliance as the BJP. The compromise he worked out was in the form of an announcement that his personal vote was for the BJP, but that he would not commit the support of his fans to its alliance beyond the six constituencies where the PMK was in the contest. This half-measure is not enough to give any decisive advantage to the AIADMK-BJP alliance.

Although non-NDA parties can expect to have a considerable number of seats, there is no real guarantee that they will continue in the Congress camp after the election, especially if the BJP and its allies are to fall short by a few seats. In the post-election scenario, some of the parties in the DPA might consider joining the NDA. After all, their main grouse was against the AIADMK, and not the BJP.

The PMK was with the AIADMK in the 1998 Lok Sabha election before allying with the DMK in the 1999 Lok Sabha election and with the AIADMK again in the 2001 Assembly election. Now, of course, it is with the DMK.

However, the DMK, which put in great effort in bringing about the grand alliance that is the DPA, would like the present configuration to remain till the next Assembly election due in 2006. It might see no point in antagonising the Left parties and the Congress by aligning with the BJP again.

The MDMK, which learnt a bitter lesson by contesting alone in the last Assembly election, is likely to stay the course with the DMK.

The AIADMK too is keeping its distance from the BJP. After driving a hard bargain in the seat-sharing talks, Ms. Jayalalithaa showed no interest in signing up as a constituent of the NDA. Even in her electioneering, she seeks votes in favour of her party's alliance with the BJP and not for the NDA as such.

Before the DMK forced the pace of political realignments by leaving the NDA, Ms. Jayalalithaa was talking of keeping equidistance from both the Congress and the BJP and forming a third front.

In the recent past, she has made it clear that the AIADMK would like to play a bigger role in national politics. Indeed, there have been demands from AIADMK leaders that Ms. Jayalalithaa take on the mantle of Prime Minister. If the AIADMK manages to send some members to Parliament, they cannot be expected to be tied down by pre-poll alliances if the post-poll scenario throws up other exciting possibilities.

If, as exit polls predict, the Lok Sabha election is headed for a close finish, the regional parties in Tamil Nadu can hope to play a big role. Since 1996, MPs from the DMK, the AIADMK and the other smaller parties have helped make up the critical number for the ruling coalition. 2004 promises to be no different.

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