The Hindu : Kerala News : Both fronts exude confidence

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Sunday, May 02, 2004

Kerala

Kerala

Both fronts exude confidence

By Ignatius Pereira

KOLLAM, MAY 1. While the UDF claims to have an edge for itself in the Kollam Lok Sabha constituency, its main rival, the LDF, claims of a certain victory in the May 10 elections. The LDF's claim may not be subjective and the UDF's not farfetched.

It has almost become certain that the finalists for the Kollam seat are the LDF candidate, P. Rajendran, and the UDF candidate, Sooranad Rajashekharan. Even hardcore BJP supporters in Kollam admit this. So the question is whether it is going to be another term for Mr. Rajendran, who represented the constituency in the 13th Lok Sabha, or if the voters would decide for a change in favour of Mr. Rajashekharan.

Given the nature of the campaign being conducted by the LDF and UDF camps, a prediction on who is going to be the winner is a difficult proposition. The LDF largely relies on an ``anti-UDF mood prevailing in the constituency, particularly among the cashew workers.'' It also hopes to cash in on the infighting in the Congress.

The UDF, on the other hand, feels that the exit poll results and the failures of the previous LDF Government in the State, especially the alleged maladministration that brought about the closure of public sector cashew factories, will work in Mr. Rajashekharan's favour. Also, both the candidates highlight the need for a secular Government at the Centre. By this, they want to convey the electorate the message that their respective representation in the Lok Sabha would be helpful for forming a secular Government at the Centre.

The candidates are now concentrating more on an Assembly segment-based campaign. They claim victory on the basis of such segment-wise feedbacks. Among the seven segments in the constituency, both sides consider Chathannur and Kundara crucial. While the LDF camp is confident of bagging more votes in both these segments, the UDF is putting extra effort to demoralise its rival. At the same time, the LDF camp is not much confident about the Kollam segment.The situation in Eravipuram is also more or less the same.However, Mr. Rajashekaran hopes that he is well-placed in Chavara. Here the LDF faces stiff fight from not only the UDF but also the BTR-EMS-AKG Janakeeya Vedi candidate, K.P. Vishwavalsan. Mr. Vishwavalsan is a known former CPI(M) and CITU leader who broke ranks with the party sometime back and joined the Vedi led by the trade union leader, V.B. Cherian.

He is very popular in Chavara and the votes polled in his favour would be at the cost of the LDF. This may also work in favour of the UDF candidate. But the adjacent Kunnathur segment is a traditional LDF stronghold. Yet, the UDF has not given up hope as Mr. Rajashekharan is a native of this segment and hence would be in a position to gain personal votes in addition to the traditional UDF votes there. But would that suffice to overtake the LDF remains to be seen.

At Karunagapally, both the UDF and the LDF appear to be evenly placed. Here again, it is the BTR-EMS-AKG factor which is worrying the LDF camp. Last year, the CPI(M) area secretary of this segment, Parameshwaran Potti, along with a good number of party activists severed ties with the party and joined hands with Mr. Cherian. The votes gained in this segment by Mr. Vishwavalsan will again be at the cost of the LDF. The Vedi hopes that a good number of votes would be polled in Mr. Vishwavalsan's favour here. But that does not bring solace to the UDF since the PDP has a good following in the constituency and the party has its candidate, Kollurvila Nassimuddin. Most of the votes going in favour of the PDP candidate in this segment will be crucial for the UDF.

All these aspects when put together make the contest in Kollam a tough one. Whoever wins, the margin of votes would not be very big.

Alappuzha

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