The Hindu : Kerala News : LDF banking on fissures in UDF camp

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Monday, May 03, 2004

Kerala

Kerala

LDF banking on fissures in UDF camp

By Radhakrishnan Kuttoor

PATHANAMTHITTA, MAY 2 . Though the Left Democratic Front (LDF) is much ahead in the campaign in the Adoor Lok Sabha constituency, reserved for Scheduled Castes, the initial lull in the Congress camp has now given way to fresh enthusiasm among the party workers.

All the three major contestants, Kodikkunnil Suresh of the Congress, Chengara Surendran of the CPI and P.M. Velayudhan of the BJP, are pinning their hopes on a "polarisation of the popular psyche" in their favour in the last lap of the campaign.

The rousing reception to the Chief Minister's Navodhana Yatra in different parts of the constituency coupled with the exit poll predictions has infused some sort of confidence in the UDF camp. Lack of cohesion is the major handicap of the UDF in Adoor, with the Kerala Congress(B), which represents the two Assembly segments of Pathanapuram and Kottarakara falling in the Lok Sabha constituency, disassociating itself from the UDF campaign. The stand-off between the Congress candidate and the KC(B) leader and Transport Minister, R. Balakrishna Pillai, reached a flash point three months ago when the latter openly stated that he would not campaign for the UDF if Mr. Suresh was fielded in Adoor. Mr. Pillai's absence in the UDF campaign in Adoor is conspicuous, and one cannot underestimate his strength in the constituency, especially in Pathanapuram, Kottarakkara and certain parts of Punalur.

There is an opinion in the Congress camp that Mr. Suresh should not have antagonised a "senior leader like Mr. Pillai." Many are of the opinion that the Congress candidate should have "taken the initiative to sort out the differences with the Minister, at least on the eve of the general elections."

On the other hand, the LDF has taken advantage of this Pillai-Suresh imbroglio, making inroads into the traditional vote bank of the UDF in many parts of the constituency.

Mr. Pillai wields a strong influence on the NSS Karayogam in Pathanapuram that spreads out in the Punalur and Pathanapuram Assembly segments, besides a strong vote bank in his home turf of Kottarakara. The KC(B) is learnt to have taken its leader's "message" to almost every household, which is likely to cause some embarrassment to the UDF.

It is also learnt that certain Congress quarters have launched a `murmur campaign' against Mr. Pillai's `Suresh-bashing' among the Scheduled Castes, who constitute 20 per cent of the total population in the Lok Sabha constituency. However, political analysts say that this would prove counter-productive, as all the three major contestants belong to the Pulaya community. Six of the seven Assembly segments in the Lok Sabha constituency are represented by the UDF. The CPI-CPI(M) cadres in Konni, Mr. Surendran's home turf, are leaving no stone unturned to ensure a `hefty' lead for him in the Assembly segment from where he had registered a lead of over 1,500 votes in 1999.

In spite of the efforts of the local Congress MLA, Adoor Prakash, to boost the UDF campaign in Konni, certain prominent Congress quarters in the Assembly segment are still "indifferent" towards a cohesive UDF campaign there.

In Kottarakara, the Pillai-Suresh clash is likely to form a Christian-Dalit voter consolidation in the last lap of the campaign, creating a split in the traditional vote bank of both the UDF and the LDF in the Assembly segment.

Though the contest is mainly between Mr. Suresh and Mr. Surendran, the votes polled in Mr. Velayudhan's kitty will also be a crucial factor in deciding the poll prospects of both the UDF and the LDF in Adoor.

Mr. Velayudhan's candidature and the systematic campaign by the BJP as well as the Sangh Parivar cadres in the constituency are most likely to make a sizable increase in the vote share of the BJP in the constituency this time.

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