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Monday, May 03, 2004

Opinion

Opinion - Leader Page Articles

The making of coalitions

By K.K. Katyal

The temptation to install minority governments with the help of "outside support" from major parties should be resisted.

TO SAY that coalitions have come to stay is to stress the obvious. Since 1996, no single party has secured a majority in the Lok Sabha, with the largest single group a long way from the halfway mark. This trend is certain to continue in the present elections, even though the predictions by pollsters about the relative strength of rival political formations may not come true. The Lok Sabha, after all, reflects the state of politics outside, which has tended to move towards fragmentation rather than consolidation.

There is nothing wrong or opportunistic or unethical about coalitions, accommodating as they do the aspirations of various sections of this land of vast diversities in a single power sharing mechanism. More important, coalitions are in tune with the spirit of the federal polity.

What about our experience with the working of coalitions in the last eight years and, earlier during the 18-month spell from 1989 onward? Far from satisfactory, at times, messy. We accepted the inevitability of power-sharing but miserably failed when it came to imbibing the coalition dharma or the coalition culture.

Whether it was the V.P. Singh Government in 1989-90 or the Chandra Shekhar-headed set-up in the following months, or the fall of the two United Front Governments in quick succession in 1996-97 or the sudden end of the first Vajpayee Government two years later, this failure stood out. True, the second Vajpayee coalition could have completed its tenure had the elections not been advanced but the equations between the BJP and the smaller allies were not always smooth. Towards the end there was the exodus of eight groups from the NDA, with some of them leaving well before the elections were announced. Then there was that oft-quoted lament by the Prime Minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, on the unwieldy nature of the coalition — "My worry now is, if we are again saddled with a 22-party coalition, such a situation is better avoided."

Some of the problems faced by the coalition governments arose out of systemic deficiencies, others out of the clash of personalities and of ambitions. From the way the forecasts of a hung Lok Sabha have set off a flurry of statements on the likely scenarios after the end of polling later this month, it is clear that no lessons have been learnt from the past.

Attention needs to be drawn to an interesting feature, which does not look like changing. There is no scope for the politics of extremes in the making of coalitions, which have to be either centre-left or centre-right. The United Front Governments fall in the first category, the BJP-led combine in the second. The BJP had to tone down its extreme positions and agree to shelve some of its pet projects — Hindutva, demand for a uniform civil code and for the repeal of Article 370 of the Constitution (on the special status for Jammu and Kashmir) — so as to be acceptable to its partners. That individual Ministers, belonging to the BJP, continued to push its agenda — like saffronisation of education by the Human Resource Development Minister, Murli Manohar Joshi — is another story.

Similarly, inclusion of the Communist Party of India in the United Front Government or the support of the CPI(Marxist) from outside did not give a pronouncedly Left orientation to their policies, though it did check a tilt towards the Right. In the next round too, there will be no escape from moderation of extreme positions, whether the present ruling combine, with the inclusion of new allies, assumes office again or its place is taken either by a Congress-led alliance or a third front.

It will be useful for the political elite to learn lessons from the past and make conscious efforts to avoid the pitfalls that wrecked earlier coalitions. This, in particular, will mean resisting the temptation of installing minority governments with the help of "outside support" of major parties. There were at least five such minority governments that came to grief. One, the V.P. Singh Government backed from outside by the BJP, on the one side, and Left parties, on the other. The President of the day, R. Venkataraman, however, was not influenced by the announcements of "outside support." Mr. Singh was invited to form the government in his capacity as the leader of the second largest party, after the Congress, the largest party, chose not to stake its claim for forming the government. However, the BJP-Left backing was a material factor, and when the BJP changed its mind, the collapse of the Government could not be prevented. Worse was the fate of the Government by Mr. Chandra Shekhar, the head of a breakaway group of the Janata Dal, with the support of Rajiv Gandhi's Congress. This was a highly lop-sided arrangement and the President was keen to ensure a measure of stability. He asked Mr. Gandhi whether his support would continue at least for one year and was told: "Why one year, it may extend to the life of Parliament". As a matter of fact it lasted some four months. The third minority government — by Mr. Vajpayee, as leader of the BJP — was in office for just 13 days. The BJP, at that point of time did not get the support of others, thus failing to cash in on its advantage as the largest single party.

None of the next two governments by the United Front, propped up by the Congress, could complete one year. The first headed by H.D. Deve Gowda collapsed when the then leader of the outside supporter, Sitaram Kesri, developed personal ambitions and pulled the rug from under the feet of the Prime Minister. The second, led by I.K. Gujral, had to quit when the Congress withdrew its support on the plea that he had not accepted its demand for dropping the Ministers, belonging to the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, supposed to have been indicted by the Jain Commission after its inquiry into the Rajiv Gandhi's assassination.

A coalition dominated by one constituent has a better chance of survival than one without such an anchor. It was because of this factor that the present Vajpayee regime secured the distinction of being the first non-Congress Government to have completed its term.

The tightening of the anti-defection law will help remove one cause for instability of coalitions. It is no longer possible now for any faction to break away from the parent party and claim legitimacy on the strength of support by one-third of the total membership, as was the case till recently.

The splits in the constituents now will no longer wreak havoc with the coalition concerned. However, there is no check on the entire constituent withdrawing from the coalition and, thus, administering a fatal blow. In other words, there is no safeguard against the type of situation that arose in early 1999, when the withdrawal by the AIADMK led to the fall of the first NDA Government.

At times, strains were introduced in the coalitions by some of the constituents exerting disproportionately heavy pressures and extracting maximum price for their support. This distorts the decision-taking process — to the detriment of the country's interests.

Coalition-makers have now to reckon with pressures unknown in the past — the ambition of the regional parties for a share of power at the Centre. That was not the case earlier when the regional bigwigs would tell the major party "you run the Centre and let us run the State". Witness the current speculation over the possible role of the Samajwadi Party leader, Mulayam Singh Yadav, after the elections now.

At the moment, all manner of wild stories are doing the round. How will the NDA conduct itself if it is slightly short of majority? Seek Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav's help as a quid pro quo for the good turn done by the BJP in helping him become the Chief Minister in Uttar Pradesh? Will the Congress make strenuous efforts to mobilise additional support if its tally improves to, say, 145 and stake claim to form the government? Or will the Congress like to sit back and let the NDA form a shaky government in the hope that a mid-term poll may be unavoidable after two years when it would be in a better position to wrest power under the stewardship of either Ms. Gandhi or her son Rahul? Or will it back a third front?

In all these scenarios, there is the danger of the coalition culture being a casualty. Not a happy thought.

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