The Hindu : Kerala News : Where voters keep parties guessing

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Tuesday, May 04, 2004

Kerala

Kerala

Where voters keep parties guessing

By G. Prabhakaran

PALAKKAD, MAY 3. The Palakkad Lok Sabha constituency has no claim to electoral loyalty towards any particular party since it can swing from one

end to another even under normal circumstances. It has sent to the Lok Sabha prominent CPI(M) men such as the illustrious A.K. Gopalan (1971) and the former Chief Minister, E. K. Nayanar (1967).

Then it was a political interlude for the CPI(M). It was A. Sunna Sahib, who defeated T. Sivadasa Menon, another CPI(M) leader in 1977. Mr. Sahib's victory was virtually unexpected.

In the 1980 and 1984 elections, V. S. Vijayaraghavan, the present UDF candidate won over Mr. Sivadasa Menon. But again it was the turnof the CPI(M) when A. Vijayaraghavan (presently member of Rajya Sabha), defeated V.S. Vijayaraghavan in 1989. In 1991, A. Vijayaraghavan was defeated by V.S. Vijayaraghavan.

In the three elections that followed the seat was won the CPI(M) youth leader, N. N. Krishnadas, twice defeating V.S. Vijayaraghavan and then M.T. Padma in the last election. This clearly shows that the constituency has no particular preference for any Front. Hence much depends on the electoral strategy and the pre-election moulding of the electoral mind.

The transformation in the social structure of the constituency is the single reason for this. Palakkad till the last two decades had been virtually an agrarian district and most of the voters resided here. But with industrialisation, there was a social transformation, with people from other parts of the State coming and settling here. As such, the political habits also changed leading to these political swings which was witnessed in the elections.

In the current battle of ballots too, it is clear that the main contenders - the UDF and the LDF - cannot take it easy. It is perhaps for this reason that there is a high-pitched campaign on at present with all the leading candidates Mr. Krishnadas, Mr. Vijayaraghavan and C. Udayabhaskar of the BJP trying to woo candidates desperately. The LDF is capitalising on the drought situation, the drinking and irrigation water crisis, the agricultural crisis and the suicide of more than a dozen farmers in the district.

The UDF has got much of the blame for the inability of the Government to protect the inter-State Parambikulam Aliyar Project (PAP). The accusation against the BJP is that the party ruling at the Centre is not favourably considering the case of the State.

At the same time the situation is not quite rosy for the LDF. Of the seven Assembly segments only three are with them and the remaining four are with UDF.

There are certain regional rifts among the LDF constituents. The murder of a Janata Dal worker in Chittur in which some of the CPI(M) people are accused is still a thorn in their flesh. In certain areas such as Mannarkkad, the CPI(M) and CPI relations also is far from being smooth. In the Attappady tribal belt a few local leaders of both the CPI(M) and CPI have joined the CMP, a constituent of the UDF. It shows that the LDF has much to do to get its house in order before the polls.

The UDF candidate, Mr. V. S. Vijayaraghavan, who is running for the Lok Sabha the seventh time with three victory and three defeats, has his plus point that he has a rich electoral experience and good contacts at the grassroots level. He can claim solid support of the farmers since he is a prominent farmer. Though a leader of the `third group' in the Congress, as the election approaches the Congress Party seems to be grouping together. The voters supporting the Indian Union Muslim League and the chunk of the settlers who mostly belong to Kerala Congress are likely to stand by him. All this gives much hope to the UDF.

With campaigning entering the final phase, the chances seem to be even for both the contending Fronts with the BJP close behind. Much depends on how the candidates influence grassroots level voters. It seems that both national and local issues will definitely emerge as key issues in the constituency.

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