The Hindu : Kerala News : Non-political voters hold the key

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Tuesday, May 04, 2004

Kerala

Kerala

Non-political voters hold the key

By N. J. Nair

CHIRAYINKEEZHU, MAY 3. As campaigning for the 14th Lok Sabha elections enters the final lap in Chirayinkeezhu, rival fronts are pinning their hopes on a final decisive swing of the non-political voters in their favour.

While the LDF candidate, Varkala Radhakrishnan, exudes confidence in improving his margin of 3,128 votes, that he managed to secure over his UDF rival, M. I. Shanavas, in the last election, the latter expects to wrest the seat from the former with a comfortable majority this time round.

The BJP candidate, J. R. Padma Kumar, too, hopes for an increase in the vote share that would enable him to put up an impressive performance with the party having apparently consolidated its position as compared to the last elections.

Out of the 10,21,521 voters, Hindus constitute about 67.57 per cent, Christians around 17.13 per cent and Muslims about 15.23 per cent.

A sizeable number of voters who do not have any specific political leanings could tilt the balance either way and hence are decisive. All three candidates are focussing their attention on these voters. All three claim that the educated upper middle-class, who do not listen to political entreaties, would support them.

The septuagenarian CPI(M) leader, who has toured the entire constituency thrice, says that he does not perceive any attitudinal change among the voters. For, he had been able to actively participate in debates in Parliament and also make significant contributions in executing developmental works using the MP's fund.

The equitable distribution of MP's funds in all Assembly segments, including those represented by the UDF, is a factor Mr. Radhakrishnan hopes will work to his advantage. The response from the coir and cashew workers, and various other segments including the middle-class is encouraging, he says. During the last elections he had to counter the anti-incumbency factor against the LDF Government. At present, the going is not so tough. The failure of the UDF Government in tackling the drinking water crisis and group squabbles in the Congress would work to his advantage, he says.

He claims to enjoy the support of the minority community which has a prominent presence in Varkala, Chirayinkeezhu and Nedumangad. The Latin Catholics, who form a sizeable number of voters in the coastal belt, and the Nadar community in Aryanad, too, would support him as he had given due importance to their needs in his projects using the MP's funds.

The UDF campaigners say that they have been monitoring the progress of the campaign at regular intervals and have identified the segments where at campaign meetings there are more voters and less workers, less voters and more workers and where they have not been able to make much of an impact.

A similar assessment has been made in all the 156 booths and now the UDF committees are in the process of taking remedial measures. During the last elections, the UDF had only two Assembly segments, Nedumangad and Aryanad. A concerted effort is being made to improve the margin of Mr. Shanavas in Kilimanoor, Varkala, Attingal, Nedumangad and Vamanapuram. The active presence of the UDF MLAs and their involvement in the campaign beyond group considerations, the UDF campaigners hope, will help Mr. Shanavas.

Much more than the communal equations, political factors including the chances of the Congress forming a Government at the Centre are more significant, they say. The impending visit of the Congress president, Sonia Gandhi, and the campaigning by the Chief Minister, A. K. Antony, in the constituency are expected to boost the morale of the Congress workers. The factional differences in the party would not affect the prospects of Mr. Shanavas since it has not percolated to the grassroots level, the UDF campaign managers say.

Mr. Padma Kumar is expecting to improve his tally on the strength of the deep inroads the party has made into the traditional strongholds of the Congress and the CPI(M) including the coastal areas. He hopes to increase the lead considerably in all the Assembly segments. Unlike in the last elections, the RSS and Hindu Aikya Vedi activists are actively campaigning for Mr. Padma Kumar. Both have a strong base in the constituency and have mobilised hardcore workers to campaign for Mr. Padma Kumar. This has made a remarkable impact on his electioneering. For, he has been able to reach even the remotest parts of the constituency, and the party, too, has consolidated its base. Mr. Padma Kumar claims to enjoy the support of the Latin Catholics and the Muslim community, apart from the SNDP Yogam and the NSS. The accent of Mr. Padma Kumar's campaign is on the attainments of the NDA Government.

In spite of these claims, what concerns the three candidates is the attitude of the non-political voters who seem to hold the key in the elections.

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