The Hindu : National / Elections 2004 : Balance in Sagar tilted in favour of BJP?

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Wednesday, May 05, 2004

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National - Elections 2004

Balance in Sagar tilted in favour of BJP?

Lalit Shastri

The main contest for the Sagar reserved parliamentary seat in Madhya Pradesh is between the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress. And, a close assessment of the ground scenario indicates that the balance is more in favour of the BJP candidate, Virendra Kumar.

Besides Mr. Kumar, the sitting MP, and his Congress rival, Uttam Khatik, there are six others in the fray, including Naresh Ahirwar of the Bahujan Samaj Party, Parvati Ahirwar of the Samajwadi Party and Vijay Shankar Gova of the Gondwana Gantantra Party.

The BSP workers claim that the presence of their party candidate has converted the election into a three-cornered contest. On every occasion they have been telling the voters how the BSP polled more than 60,000 votes in six of the eight Assembly segments under the Sagar parliamentary constituency in the 2003 Assembly election.

The BJP cadres on the other hand are optimistic of Mr. Kumar's prospects especially in view of the massive support they got from the electorate in the Assembly elections. Of the eight Assembly segments, the BJP won seven — Bina, Khurai (SC), Banda, Naryawali (SC), Sagar, Rehli and Deori. The Congress' lone victory was in Surkhi.

Mr. Kumar says he will avenge the loss of Surkhi by registering a clear lead in all the Assembly segments this time just as he had done in 1999. His party workers point to the Prime Minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee's "good image and work" as well as Mr. Kumar's own clean image and assert that the people will overwhelmingly vote for him. The locals are annoyed with the Congress as nothing concrete had been done to develop roads in this region during the Congress rule in the State, say BJP workers.

The Congress' Mr. Khatik was a late starter when it came to launching his campaign since there was a delay in finalising his ticket. His poll managers, however, say it will not be difficult for Mr. Khatik to bridge the gap of 60,473 votes that happened to be Mr. Kumar's victory margin in 1999. The BJP wave seen in the Assembly election has subsided, they say.

Most of the candidates, particularly Mr. Kumar and Mr. Khatik, have focussed their energies on the villages and have been going from door to door seeking votes.

The BSP cadres say that any analysis which fails to describe the Sagar election as a three-cornered contest would be against the ground reality. They contend that most of the Ahirwar votes in this area will go to Mr. Naresh Ahirwar as the Congress has failed to field an Ahirwar candidate. Some in the BJP say that the BSP's gain on this count will be at the cost of the Congress and that this will help them.

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