The Hindu : Kerala News : Close fight on the cards

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Wednesday, May 05, 2004

Kerala

Kerala

Close fight on the cards

By George Jacob

THODUPUZHA, MAY 4. While welcome summer showers have brought down the scorching heat, the political barometer is shooting up, as one of the toughest election campaigns in the short history of the Idukki constituency comes to an end this weekend.

With only hours left for the culmination of the campaign, the sitting MP and LDF candidate, Francis George (KC-J), is engaged in an effort to sort out last minute hitches in his well planned and effectively implemented campaign which focussed mainly on the MP's role in infrastructure development. The strategy was to build on the goodwill he had generated during the past five years.

On the other hand, with the star campaigner - the Congress president, Sonia Gandhi - scheduled this week, the UDF candidate, Benny Behanan, expects to end his high voltage campaign in a crescendo.

The last-minute push would help augment the traditional UDF vote-bank, lost to the LDF in 1999, and the party machinery in the constituency, brought back to rails, would turn this groundswell into votes, his campaign managers believe.

Among the seven Assembly segments in the constituency, Mr George had registered a majority in five constituencies over P.J. Kurian in the 1999 election, leaving only Idukki and Pathanamthitta to his opponent. However, instead of any one single factor contributing to his success, it was the cumulative effect of a host of local issues in the Assembly segments which resulted in this extraordinary victory for Mr George in a traditional UDF domain. This time too, local issues may play a role, though the equations have since changed.

The Peermade Assembly segment is one of Mr George's strongholds. Though the UDF had wrested the segment from LDF in the last election, the almost chaotic situation prevailing in the plantations and the open bitterness against the local Congress MLA should make things easy for Mr George. However, the `anarchic' situation in the plantations, where mafia-like organisations have sprung up, provide ample scope for vote peddling.

The real challenge for Mr George lies in the Udumbanchola segment where he had registered a whopping majority of 7,094 votes. Whether he would be able to register a repeat performance under the changed political conditions is the moot question.

On the other hand, with solid support from the sitting MLA, the traditional UDF stronghold of Pathanamthitta should offer no challenge to Mr Behanan, this time too.

However, the strong presence of the Malankara Orthodox community and their voting pattern may put paid to the calculations of Mr Behanan, who happens to be a Jacobite.

The Idukki Assembly segment, with its large settler-farmer community, is dominated by the Roman Catholic community and their preference may have an effect in the final outcome.

In the Thodupuzha segment, while the defeat of the KC(J) chairman, P.J. Joseph, in the last Assembly election should come as a solace to the UDF campaigners, Mr George is banking heavily on the bickering within the UDF and stance taken by the SNDP.

The voting pattern of the Tamil-speaking plantation workers in Devicolam had traditionally reflected the inner dynamics among various trade unions and hostility among leaders. This is one segment where the UDF is hoping to make inroads.

That the BJP has decided to field S.T.B. Mohandas, from the large Tamil-speaking population who dominate the plantation sector, has not gone unnoticed by either fronts.

The voting pattern of this segment can go a long way in influencing the UDF performance in Devicolam, Udumbanchola and Peermade and also holds one of the keys to the final outcome.

The LDF campaign has sought to drive the wedge into the chinks in the massive UDF vote bank. The Roman Catholic identity of Mr George and the Jacobite identity of Mr Behanan had come in handy in this regard.

On many occasions, the tactic appeared to pay off, especially when the newly formed Syro Malabar diocese in Idukki demanded the UDF candidature for themselves and later, when a section of the Jacobite hierarchy took a strong stand against Jose K. Mani, the UDF candidate in the neighbouring Muvattupuzha constituency. How far this strategy has succeeded, would be reflected in the voting pattern in the Idukki and Thodupuzha segments.

With only hours left for the curtains to come down on their campaigns, the LDF is banking on new possibilities being worked out at the national level.

Meanwhile, the UDF is looking forward to the big boost their campaign would receive from the arrival of Ms. Gandhi. For, both know well that it is no cakewalk at Idukki.

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