The Hindu : Kerala News : LDF challenge in IUML bastion

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Wednesday, May 05, 2004

Kerala

Kerala

LDF challenge in IUML bastion

By Biju Govind

MANJERI, MAY 4. With only a couple of days left for campaigning to end for the May 10 polls, the stage has been set for an exciting finish in the Manjeri Lok Sabha constituency.

Two factors have emerged from the electioneering in this Muslim heartland dominated by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML). One is that the CPI(M) candidate, T.K. Hamsa, would put up a tough fight against the IUML candidate, K.P.A. Majeed.

Secondly, the Muslim League leadership has also risen to the occasion to take note of this factor that there was a challenge to it in its own bastion. Unlike in the past, the leadership has carefully designed the campaign package in this constituency, sensing that the party could no longer take the electorate for a ride.

Campaigns led by the IUML State president, Panakkad Mohammedali Shihab Thangal, and the charismatic Minister, M.K.Muneer, among others, in the Assembly constituencies have neutralised the earlier anti-Majeed mood that had prevailed in some of its traditional boroughs. In the previous elections, League candidates had faced some sort of a threat, either from political parties within the community or Muslim organisations. And this time too they have failed to evoke any response among the electorate, League leaders claim.

Fighting from the League home turf has given an advantage to Mr. Majeed, although T.K.Hamsa has been able to capitalise on the strong undercurrents favouring his candidature.

The publicity blitz that the CPI(M) candidate is a strong contender to take on any Muslim League nominee in Malappuram and the anti-League stand adopted by the Sunni faction, led by A.P.Kanthapuram Aboobacker Musaliar, have helped Mr. Hamsa to galvanise support in his favour. The Congress-League love-hate relationships in some parts of the district also worked in favour of Mr. Hamsa in the initial stages of campaigning.

At the same time, the League leadership was quick to realise the strategy adopted by the CPI(M). The League poll managers have deftly employed the services of the party's women campaigners and workers to undertake door-to-door campaigns for Mr. Majeed in the rural belts and moffusil towns. A bigger turn-out would be needed in this election to ensure a comfortable win for the Muslim League candidate, they feel.

They feel that Mr. Majeed would not be able to emulate E. Ahmed's huge victories. Mr Ahmed had won from the constituency four times in a row. When the polling per cent had been 68.98 in 1996, the League national figure, Mr. Ahmed, got a lead of 54,971 votes against the young CPI(M) leader, C.H.Ashiq.

In the subsequent elections held in 1998 and 1999, Mr. Ahmed won laudable victories by a margin of over a lakh votes against his nearest opponents even when the polling percentage stood at 69.21 and 66.7 respectively.

League leaders hope that the impact of their campaign will be reflected in the voter turn-out on polling day. They expect the polling to cross 75 per cent, like the 1984 and the 1989 general elections when the polling percentage were 77.4 per cent and 79.72 per cent.

The party leaders have also managed to exorcise the ghost of the unholy alliances the Muslim League had with the CPI(M)-led parties at the grama panchayats in the district. Mr. Majeed has been accused of being instrumental in forming tie-ups with the LDF at the local body elections. This had rattled the Congress leadership in Malappuram district for a long time.

The Congress-League combine is now spearheading the campaign for Mr. Majeed in the Assembly constituencies in Nilambur and Wandoor where the League leadership earlier feared that the Congress workers would pull the rug from under the feet of its candidate.

The Congress party does not want to antagonise the Muslim League because it would adversely affect its candidates' prospects in the coming local body elections next year and the Assembly polls in 2006.

It is also interesting to note that when the A.P.Sunni section went hammer and tongs against Mr. Majeed, the two Muhajid factions did not take cudgels on his behalf. The Muhajid and the League leadership believe that it would have only caused an adverse effect.

With the campaign entering a fever pitch, the BJP candidate, Uma Unni, appears to be caught on the horns of a dilemma. She was chosen by the party to contest the Manjeri constituency after she came to prominence in the wake of the Marad killings last year.

But she does not know whether to woo the electorate on a national plank or just stick to the massacre in the seaside village. In spite of this, her campaign managers feel that she would cross the one-lakh mark.

Like in some constituencies in the State where the LDF and UDF are locked in a tight contest, Manjeri is also a constituency to be keenly watched.

It would be interesting to see whether the CPI(M)'s anti-U.S. and anti-NDA stand has lured conservative Muslim voters in Malappuram district to its side.

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