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Wednesday, May 05, 2004

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National - Elections 2004

BJP, Congress bid to maintain tally

By Sunny Sebastian

JAIPUR, MAY 4 .Tall claims notwithstanding, the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress in Rajasthan are trying hard to maintain their tally of 1999 Lok Sabha elections. While the BJP would be happy if it can retain the present 16 Lok Sabha seats and capture at least one more to prove a point, the Congress is trying hard to first maintain the status quo of nine seats and thereafter to improve upon it.

The BJP which started with an "all 25'' call in the beginning of the campaign is now willing to settle down at 17-18 Lok Sabha seats as the changed caste equations after the recent Assembly elections have seemingly stemmed the party's progression. The party tried to match the Congress caste by caste in the selection of the candidates but the kind of support it had received from the Jat community in 1999 would not be forthcoming this time round.

It is certain that at least some of the outgoing MPs would not be getting a renewed mandate from the public. The BJP and the Congress together have renominated as many as 20 outgoing MPs. As the BJP has more outgoing MPs in the contest (13), its losses are likely to be heavier than the Congress (7) on this count.

Apart from the outgoing ones, the "guest artists'' of this time, like the BJP's Kartar Singh Badhana in Dausa, Mahant Chandnath in Alwar and the Congress party's Ved Prakash in Bharatpur and Surendra Surana in Pali are not in a strong position against their rivals.

Even the much hyped `he man' of the Bollywood, Dharmendra, after generating much heat and dust in the desert initially may settle down -- if he is lucky -- with a small margin against his Congress rival, Rameshwar Lal Dudi.

Sushila Laxman, wife of the former BJP president, Bangaru Laxman, even after putting up a brave fight against Congress veteran Buta Singh in Jalore cannot be said to be in a winning position. This is despite the fact that she would score better than Buta Singh in the urban centres like Jalore, Sirohi, Bhinmal and Sanchore.

The other three women candidates fielded by the BJP too are facing strong opposition from their Congress rivals. The Union Minister, Jaskaur Meena, cannot be said to be comfortable in Sawai Madhopur against the Congress nominee, Namo Narain Meena while Kiren Maheshwari, pitted against Girija Vyas, outgoing MP in Udaipur is giving the latter a difficult time. The BJP newcomer in Jhunjhunu, Santosh Ahlawat, too is not well placed.

The seats in which the Congress is found to be strong are in the Shekhawati belt (Sikar, Jhunjhunu, Churu), in the Braj and Matsya area (Dausa, Sawai Madhopur, Bayana and Alwar) barring Bharatpur where the victory of the outgoing BJP MP, Vishvendra Singh, is seemingly certain. The Congress is hopeful of winning the keenly contested seats of Sriganganagar, Banswara and Bhilwara. The fate of Salumber (ST) is uncertain.

The BJP strong seats are Jhalawar, from where Dushyant Singh, son of the Chief Minister, Vasundhara Raje is contesting, Ajmer, Barmer, Jaipur, Chittorgarh, Pali and Kota. The BJP is expecting to win from Tonk and Nagaur.

The Muslims in Rajasthan are voting for the Congress barring in individual constituencies like Barmer and Nagaur where the rivalry of the community with the Jat candidates of the party has taken the form of a feud. It cannot be said that the traditional Dalit and Adivasi vote bank of the Congress will be found intact this time, considering the sustained work carried out by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh in their pockets.

Though it has been too early for the party Government in the State to face an anti-incumbency situation, and the Chief Minister, Vasundhara Raje, is still a crowd puller in the villages, the voter ennui and the misery of the summer months in Rajasthan -- the highlights of which are water scarcity and total absence of jobs to poor -- have left the general voters complaining.

During the election coverage tours one could come across people complaining about the Government not opening drought relief works -- when the fact is that there is no officially announced drought condition in the State.

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