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Saturday, May 08, 2004

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National - Elections 2004

The Left, the Right and the Mamata factor

Malabika Bhattacharya

Kolkata

In West Bengal, the ruling Leftists and their main adversary, the Trinamool Congress-BJP combine and the Congress, are readying themselves for a bruising battle on May 10.

The Lok Sabha elections are important in that the Leftists, led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist), are making a strong bid for the 42 seats in the belief that they could hold the key to who forms the next government at the Centre.

The Leftists are focussing on economic issues, while the Trinamool/BJP is relying the charisma of the Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee, the Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani and, of course, the party supremo, Mamata Banerjee.

The current election is the first one that the CPI (M) is fighting under the collective leadership of Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee, Biman Bose and Anil Biswas, without leaning so much on Jyoti Basu, the 88-year-old former Chief Minister, who is ailing.

The ruling Left Front, a patchwork quilt of nine parties, is contesting 42 seats with CPI (M) accounting for the bulk of the seats (32). The Trinamool is hoping that Ms. Banerjee will be able to put the party on the road to victory, riding on the anti-incumbency factor. Ms. Banerjee may have lost some of her shine since the party's debacle in the last Assembly poll, but has managed to regain some lost ground following her return to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Says. Ms Banerjee, "The communists have made it a habit of rigging elections. I have told my party supporters to remain alert." The Congress, till recently the Left's main adversary, has fielded 37 candidates.

The BJP, a relative upstart in Bengal's highly polarised political scene, has fielded candidates in 14 seats backed by its ally Trinamool, but like the Trinamool, it is also mired in factionalism. Even though the Trinamool is trying to woo the voters by projecting Mr. Vajpayee as the country's as well as Bengal's only hope, it is doubtful whether it will be able to roll back the Leftist juggernaut. The doubt flows from two factors: Ms. Banerjee's limited influence on the voter and the Trinamool's inability to grow outside urban south Bengal. Rural Bengal is expected to vote for the Left. Since 1977, the Leftists, through the panchayats and land reforms, have succeeded in entrenching themselves in Bengal.

The Trinamool, however, is hoping to tap urban discontent. TheCPI (M) understands that it is in a position to woo Kolkata's discerning voters because of the transformation of the city — flyovers, bridges, roads, shopping malls and multiplexes, thanks to the initiatives unveiled by the government. For the young voter, Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee's Government represents a vision and gives the impression of thinking big. But the Trinamool expects to get votes from a section of the urban populace, which has been traditionally anti-Left, business and trading communities as well as the upper middle-class. In the absence of any visible wave, the parties are vying to capture popular attention. The Trinamool has been trying to propagate Mr. Vajpayee's feel-good theory and the Left's inability to form a Government at the Centre. But it is handicapped by negative publicity about the disinvestment spree and the prevailing communal tensions. The Congress has its problems, too. First, it has lost much of its support base to the Trinamool, which has wrested the leadership of the anti-Left forces from it. Secondly, it lacks credibility in Bengal, because of the understanding reached between the Left and the Congress at the national level.

But what is worrying the Leftists and the Congress alike is the presence of the BJP. The BJP, with its "Hindutva" slogan, has made a dent in areas till recently loyal to the Left or the Congress.

The Muslims, who account for nearly 30 per cent of the electorate, are a major factor. In many ways, Kolkata South parliamentary constituency represents what is at stake in this election. Here Ms. Banerjee is fighting the CPI (M)'s Rabin Deb and the Congress' Nafisa Ali. The outcome could either make or break her political career.

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