The Hindu : National / Elections 2004 : In Punjab and Haryana, ruling parties up against the wall

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Saturday, May 08, 2004

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National - Elections 2004

In Punjab and Haryana, ruling parties up against the wall

In Haryana, it is advantage Congress, but in Punjab, the party is likely to be at the receiving end, says Yogendra Yadav

Will the NDA manage to offset its sure losses from Haryana with the help of possible gains in Punjab? Or, will the Congress turn the multi-cornered contest in Haryana to its advantage to offset losses in Punjab? This must be the question that occupies the strategists of the two leading formations as they head for the final round of polling. Once a part of the undivided Punjab, both these States have followed a political trajectory that is quite independent of each other. But there is one thing common to the electoral contest in both these states. The ruling parties in both the States find themselves up against the wall, with indications that the swing factor as well as the alliance effect is working to their disadvantage.

Last time the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and the BJP combine swept the Lok Sabha polls by winning all the 10 Lok Sabha seats in Haryana. Both the parties won five seats each, as the BJP had managed to secure a better deal in the alliance than its ground strength indicated. This time both the parties have only losses to look forward to as they face the electorate separately. The relations between the two allies were never smooth but the final break-up happened before the Lok Sabha elections when the State BJP unit felt, reportedly against the advice of the party's central leadership, that it could improve its long-term electoral prospects by contesting on its own. No doubt, the BJP has gained some support in the State but has not quite outgrown its image of a party of the urban traders and immigrants from Punjab. This cruel realisation is beginning to dawn upon the party's leadership as it finds itself in a tight corner in the electoral contest. The BJP should be happy to secure a couple of seats in the State, though its tally could be reduced to a nought in the worst-case scenario.

The ruling INLD appears to be at the receiving end of a strong anti-incumbency backlash. Unlike most other States, this sentiment does not seem to be driven by a perception of non-performance on the developmental front. In relative terms the performance of the Government on the routine developmental and civic amenities front is not seen to be worse than its predecessors. What is really driving the voters away from the ruling party is the autocratic manner in which Mr. Chautala and his sons have ruled the State. There is scant regard for democratic norms and procedures, whether in the legislature or within the party. Stories of wanton display of autocratic power, use of political power for looting public and private resources, use of the State police and private musclemen to silence critics and routine humiliation of bureaucrats and ministers by the Chautala clan are the stuff of everyday gossip in the state.

The party still enjoys considerable support among the Jats, the largest and the most powerful agrarian community that accounts for one-quarter of the State's electorate, but the unrest among the peasants may take some of that away. Besides, being too popular among the Jats is not an asset in Haryana, for it fuels a sense of caste discrimination and consolidates other communities against them. The INLD is conscious of the challenge this time in view of the Assembly elections that are due in less than a year. Mr. Chautala is doing everything possible, including fielding both his sons, in this election. Ground reports and various polls indicate that the going may be tough for them. In any case, the INLD is not a party that any opponent can take lightly and is in serious contest in half the constituencies of the State. The Haryana Vikas Party of Bansi Lal is also in the fray and is hoping to take away a chunk of the Jat votes from the INLD, but its strength has been reduced over the years and it does not appear to be in the contest except in a couple of constituencies.

The Congress seems to be the biggest beneficiary of this four-way contest. Ironically the party has done pretty little in the past four years to deserve this gain. The faction-ridden State Congress has witnessed ugly battles for leadership between the Bhajan Lal faction and the factions led by Bhupinder Singh Hooda and Birender Singh. Yet, despite its decline in the 1990s, the Congress has retained more than 30 per cent vote share in the State. It is the only party in the State that enjoys a support that cuts across all the major castes and communities. The last time the State witnessed a four-cornered contest with no major alliances was in 1991. In that election the Congress secured 37 per cent votes, 12 points ahead of its nearest rival, Devi Lal's Lok Dal. This division of votes enabled the Congress to pick nine of the 10 seats in the State. Assuming that the INLD has lost votes since the last Assembly elections, the Congress can hope to achieve a similar division of votes, except that the BJP may get substantially more than the 10 per cent votes it won in 1991. A swing of 4 percentage points, which reflects that situation, could translate into a tally of nine seats for the Congress. The actual outcome may not be that lop-sided due to the presence of many heavyweight candidates. But the Congress has a definite advantage in Haryana.

In Punjab, the story is the reverse of Haryana. Here the Congress is at the receiving end of the alliance effect and the swing factor. The Congress faces its traditional rival, the Akali-BJP alliance. The last Lok Sabha elections saw the same line-up, but with a crucial difference. The Akali Dal was divided between the official wing led by Prakash Singh Badal and the rebels, the SHSAD, led by the late Gurcharan Singh Tohra. The rebel faction did not win any seat, but it took nearly five per cent votes away from the SAD. That made a crucial difference as the Congress won nine out of the 13 seats in the State. The Akali-BJP alliance won only three, while one seat went to Simranjit Singh Mann, representing yet another Akali Party. If the SHSAD had not split the Akali votes, the Akali-BJP alliance would have won two more seats.

Since then the SHSAD has merged with Badal's SAD and the Akali Dal-BJP alliance is back to its natural strength. The real strength of this alliance has been the fact that it brings opposite social bases together. The BJP in Punjab is the party of caste Hindus, mostly based in the urban centres of the State. The Akali Dal has represented the rural Sikhs, mainly the Jat Sikhs who are the largest and the most powerful community in social and economic terms. Paradoxically, the fact that the two parties represent very different segments of the society makes it a very harmonious alliance, with little incentive for any partner to poach into each other's territory. Earlier the State had a distinct regional voting pattern: the Akalis did their best in the Malwa region while the Congress dominated the Majha and the Doab region. But the years of political turbulence in the State have redrawn the political geography and given the Akalis the same level of support across the three regions.

The Congress is the only party that secures a decent vote share among all sections of society. It tends to make up for its disadvantage among the Jat Sikhs by securing a huge lead among the Dalits, both Hindus and Sikhs, who constitute about 28 per cent of the State's population. This is the advantage that the Congress pressed home in the Assembly elections of 2002 when it successfully dislodged the Akalis from power. The Congress was not untouchable any more for the vast majority of Sikhs, as it was for many years after Operation Bluestar. The election also signalled a return to normal politics in the State where questions of development and interest fulfilment taking centre stage, thus displacing questions of identity, alienation and terrorism that dominated State politics for well over a decade.

The Akali-BJP alliance's possible return this time has nothing to do with the agenda of those troubled days. Their campaign has systematically targeted the Amarinder Singh Government in the State for its style of government and for ignoring the interests of the farmers. The Government has not helped itself by appearing to pay more interest in going after Badal and his family than in attending to its routine duties. The ugly and ongoing feud between the Chief Minister and his deputy Rajinder Kaur Bhattal has also damaged the Congress. The Congress has retained its alliance with the two Communist parties. But their ground strength has been considerably eroded during the decade of the insurgency. The Congress could have benefited more with an alliance with the BSP that has a significant presence among the Dalits of Doab region.

In the absence of any such support the Congress faces a tough situation. After the merger of the SHSAD, the starting point of the race is 7:5 in favour of the Congress. A swing of 2 percentage points away from the Congress would make it 8:4 in favour of the Akali-BJP combine. Another two points, a total swing of 4 percentage points from the 1999 Lok Sabha elections, could give the NDA all but one seat from the State. The only consolation for the Congress here is that it may make up for these losses in the neighbouring State of Haryana.

[The author is a Senior Fellow at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi and Co-Director of Lokniti, a research programme of the CSDS. This series of essays in The Hindu has benefited from the research support, analysis and insights from Abhay Datar at the CSDS. Unless otherwise specified, the data presented in this series has drawn upon the Data Unit of the CSDS which houses one of the largest data sets on democratic politics anywhere in the world. Himanshu Battacharya of CSDS provided computer support and ran special analyses programmes for this series. The author also wishes to acknowledge the inputs received from colleagues in the Lokniti network from all over the country]

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