The Hindu : Kerala News : LDF sees sharp swing away from UDF

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Monday, May 10, 2004

Kerala

Kerala

LDF sees sharp swing away from UDF

By C. Gouridasan Nair

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM, MAY 9 . The challenge before the LDF in this election is simple: to ensure that there is a 3 to 4 per cent swing away from the UDF. If it succeeds in doing so, the LDF would achieve handsome gains. If not, it would be faced with a throwback to the days when the electorate preferred the Congress in Lok Sabha elections and gave the CPI(M) and its allies a friendly glance only in Assembly polls.

The LDF leaders believe that they have broken that jinx this time. And they have reasons to think so.

But the rider holds here as well: whether they have achieved their goal would be known only when the inscrutable Kerala voter opens his mind.

The primary reason for the LDF leadership's confidence about a big win is the all-too-evident manner in which the traditional UDF vote banks have got splintered over questions about the future of secularism in the country. Although the term `secularism' might seem nothing but a convenient tag that non-BJP political parties could use to their advantage, a section of the Kerala electorate appears to be looking at the whole question more seriously than was the case in the last few elections. This section comprises the various denominations of the Christian community and the non-Muslim League sections of the Muslim community. The Congress and the Left are caught in a very interesting situation here. Although the Congress is seeking to replace the BJP-led NDA at the Centre, the kind of credibility it carries with the minorities in Kerala today is open to question.

The upper crust of the Christian community has displayed its mistrust of the Congress by slowly gravitating towards the BJP at least in certain pockets of the State. The Latin Catholic Church and various other Christian denominations have taken an entirely different position and Church leaders like the Bishop, Susai Pakiam, in Thiruvananthapuram have come out with an open warning against fundamenalist onslaughts on the Constitution and the rights it guarantees to all citizens. Such open position should fetch some votes for the LDF, of course, depending on the image of the candidates in the fray in individual constituencies.

Though not visible on the surface, a fierce discussion is on within the Muslim community as well on these questions and it cannot but go in favour of the LDF. Traditionally, the Christian and Muslim communities have backed the Congress and the UDF.

However, there is a perceivable shift in their position after all the murky happenings in Congress politics in recent months. But, they still want a Congress Government to come to power at the Centre. What can they do to send a strong message to the State Congress, but still ensure that a Congress-led Government comes to power at the Centre? Vote for LDF.

Now, that raises an interesting question: is it more profitable for the LDF to say openly that it would back a Congress-led secular Government at the Centre disregarding its State-level opposition to the party? That might seem to be the case, if one were to go by what appears in pastoral letters and pamphlets that are doing the rounds in Kerala today.

The LDF's only major opponent in this election was the Chief Minister, A. K. Antony. In their reckoning, if there has been a revival of fortunes for the UDF, it is only on account of his `Navodhana Yatra'. Despite the UDF's stock sinking to dangerous levels in the minds of the people, the Chief Minister could arouse his allies and partymen for the electoral battle through the clever strategy of focussing his attacks on the CPI(M). Some LDF leaders fell for it and whatever they said in response to his repeated barbs would cost the LDF dear.

The LDF is sticking to its early calculation of certain wins in 12 constituencies and a touch-and-go in at least three others. Opinion polls by two major players have come out with conflicting predictions and that probably only suggests the ferocity of the battle being fought.

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