The Hindu : Kerala News : BJP makes significant gains in State

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Saturday, May 15, 2004

Kerala

Kerala

BJP makes significant gains in State

By Roy Mathew

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM, MAY 14. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) gets a foothold in Kerala with the victory of the Union Minister of State for Law, P.C. Thomas (Indian Federal Democratic Party), from Muvattupuzha constituency. The significance of improvement in performance of the party candidate in Thiruvananthapuram constituency, O. Rajagopal, also cannot be missed as it virtually opens a door for the BJP in the State capital.

Though Mr. Thomas' victory can be technically termed as a victory for the NDA, it is more of a personal victory. He had virtually been thrown out of the Kerala Congress(Mani) as its leader, K.M. Mani, started promoting his son, Jose Mani. The results show that Mr. Thomas had not only been able to carry his personal votes with him to the NDA camp but also part of the legacy of Kerala Congress, as can be seen from the lead he established in the Palai Assembly segment, the citadel of Mr. Mani. He has, in fact, established leads in the three Assembly segments of Kanjirappally, Poonjar and Palai over both his rivals and was runner-up in three other constituencies.

In Thiruvananthapuram, Mr. Rajagopal established leads in Thiruvananthapuram North and Thiruvananthapuram East. He was runner-up in Nemom and Thiruvananthapuram West segments. To a great extent, these are personal votes. It, however, marks an increase in the vote share of the BJP in the constituency by about 10 percentage points.

As it stands, this shows that the BJP would have a fighting chance in the next Assembly elections from a few constituencies provided that it comes with popular candidates. But, the loss of power at the Centre would be a handicap. Besides, several new factors could come in before the next Assembly elections. However, whether they would be positive or negative, it gives the BJP a momentum for its push towards finding new allies and opening an account in the Assembly.

At the State level, the BJP's vote share has gone up compared to its performance in the previous Assembly and Parliament elections. The BJP has apparently been able to correct the setbacks to its growth seen in the last few elections to the Assembly and Lok Sabha and improve upon that.

The party contested 19 of the 20 Lok Sabha seats from the State this time and got a vote share of about 10.4 per cent. When the contribution of its ally in Muvattupuzha (1.7 per cent) is added to this, their total share in votes touches 12.1 per cent.

This is against a vote share of 6.56 per cent at the State level in 1999 elections, when it contested 14 seats, and 8.02 per cent in 1998 when it contested all the 20 seats. It was believed that the party had an average support base of eight to ten per cent. Whenever the BJP votes dropped, there were allegations that they were transferred to other candidates through underhand deals. This time, there are no such allegations.

The BJP State president, P.S. Sreedharan Pillai, had stated soon after taking reins of his party that he would do everything in his power to stop hijacking of his party's votes. He achieved what he aimed at in this election. Now, he is planning further measures at the organisational level to build on what is achieved this time.

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