The Hindu : Opinion / Editorials : NARENDRA MODI AS SUPER SCAPEGOAT

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Monday, May 31, 2004

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NARENDRA MODI AS SUPER SCAPEGOAT

WHILE THE BHARATIYA Janata Party still swears by Hindutva, as is evident from L.K. Advani's statement on Friday, there is serious rethinking about the current worth of Moditva. By any civilised political standard, Gujarat's infamous Chief Minister should have been out of power and facing criminal prosecution for his administration's complicity in what happened after Godhra. But what is interesting is the post-election attempt to discover in Narendra Modi an overarching explanation for Verdict 2004, in other words a super scapegoat. That is his real value today. Voices from within the BJP such as ex-Ministers Murli Manohar Joshi and Shahnawaz Hussein have blamed the post-Godhra `riots' as well as Mr. Modi's vitriolic speeches against Sonia Gandhi and her family for the party's poor showing. Allies such as the Telugu Desam Party, the Nationalist Trinamool Congress and the Janata Dal (United) have singled out the Gujarat violence and Mr. Modi's rhetoric as the most likely cause of their electoral rout. Even the Shiv Sena, for its own reasons, has joined in the game of Modi-baiting. Compounding the Chief Minister's discomfiture is the inner-party revolt led by the Gogha MLA, Purushottam Solanki, a powerful Koli leader and a longstanding Modi detractor. Mr. Solanki claims to have the support of some 58 MLAs and is seen by many as acting on cue from the Saurashtra strongman and ex-Chief Minister, Keshubhai Patel.

The BJP's State unit has moved fast to quell this revolt by issuing a show cause notice to Mr. Solanki. Such firefighting is unlikely to work for too long. Farmers in Gujarat led by the Bharatiya Kisan Sangh, an affiliate of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, have been restive over increased power tariff. A series of Supreme Court judgments against the Modi regime's appalling handling of the post-Godhra riot cases has embarrassed the party and the Government. There is discontent among a large section of the BJP cadre in Gujarat, whose involvement in the post-Godhra pogrom has been established by human rights organisations and who now feel they have been betrayed by the Modi administration under pressure from the apex court. Added to this is the relative lack of volubility on the part of the RSS in support of Mr. Modi, a former pracharak. The official stance of the RSS is that this is a crisis within the BJP and the party must know how best to handle it.

There is a section within the BJP that favours replacement of the Gujarat Chief Minister as the only way of taking the sting out of the universal condemnation of the party's role in, and rationalisation of, the directed post-Godhra violence. Toleration of Mr. Modi, they fear, will be seen as continuing condonation of what happened in Gujarat in February-March 2002. Further, if a no-nonsense attitude is adopted by the new dispensation at the Centre, the Modi regime may well find itself in deep legal and constitutional trouble. The other view within the BJP holds, however, that it will be a sign of weakness and even a travesty to make Mr. Modi a scapegoat for the poor performance of the National Democratic Alliance in the 14th general election. Condemnation and support for the Gujarat Chief Minister seem to mirror some kind of internal struggle within the BJP triggered by the big electoral upset. Not too long ago, Mr. Modi was seen as a priceless asset and made to campaign extensively for the cause in various States. The BJP high command's tactical decision on his fate will say a good deal about its plans for the difficult period ahead.

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NARENDRA MODI AS SUPER SCAPEGOAT