The Hindu : Opinion / Editorials : UTTAR PRADESH ON THE BOIL

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Monday, Jun 14, 2004

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UTTAR PRADESH ON THE BOIL

CONGRESS LEADERS MAY make out that their recently intensified disquiet over law and order in Uttar Pradesh is motivated by genuine concern for the well being of the people of the State. But what stands out is the realpolitik in the party's hostile stance towards Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav. At one level, the war of words against the Samajwadi Party-led Government waged by Congress leaders including party president Sonia Gandhi, Union Home Minister Shivraj Patil, and new party icon Rahul Gandhi is an extension of a political battle witnessed in the State during the 14th general election. The announced objective on both sides was to gain dominance over the secular political space in U.P. The Samajwadi Party won that round handsomely, picking up 36 out of the State's 80 Lok Sabha seats against the Congress' nine. But following the Bharatiya Janata Party's debacle in the State and the not unrelated arrival of a new dispensation at the Centre, the Congress sees a new opportunity to capture ground from the Samajwadi Party and, with some luck, to marginalise it.

The manoeuvres triggered by this changed strategic perception underline the Congress' refusal to come to terms with the Samajwadi Party's secular credentials — and its special appeal to minorities and to substantial sections of the socially disadvantaged. In the process, the contributions made by this party towards keeping the communal peace in India's most populous State tend to be dismissed. It is an open secret that the Congress leadership is trying to persuade or pressure the Rashtriya Lok Dal to defect from Chief Minister Mulayam's camp. There are also indications of a growing closeness, or tactical convergence of interests, between the Congress and Mayawati's `Dalit-assertive' Bahujan Samaj Party. The calculation is that an alliance with the BSP will help the Congress not only in Uttar Pradesh but also in Maharashtra, where Legislative Assembly elections are due by the end of the year. Although the BSP did not win any seat from Maharashtra in the 14th general election, its spirited performance, especially in Vidharbha, brought about the defeat of Congress-Nationalist Congress Party alliance candidates in about a dozen Lok Sabha seats.

The logical conclusion of these moves could be the ouster of the Mulayam Singh Government and mid-term polls for the U.P. Assembly. Bullish projections based on lead positions in the State's 403 Assembly segments goad the Congress on in this game of realpolitik. An analysis of the data on how the various parties fared in U.P. in the recently concluded Lok Sabha election reveals that the BSP led in 100 Assembly segments, the Congress in 47, and the RLD in 22. Significantly, the Congress came second in more than 50 segments. The calculation is that if it can make common cause with the BSP and the RLD, the new combine can win 42 per cent of the State's Assembly seats (assuming that the socio-political situation remains unchanged). But the Congress also looks forward to a substantial shift of the mass Muslim vote from the Samajwadi Party to the new formation. The game plan seems to dictate that if all this is to happen, the first step is to have the Mulayam Singh Government undone. The arithmetic in the current Assembly is such that the Government is likely to survive even if the Congress and the RLD formally oppose it. It is in this context that the statements about rising crime and the "deteriorating law and order situation" in Uttar Pradesh acquire an ominous meaning.

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