The Hindu : Opinion / News Analysis : Kashmir: process is the product

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Monday, Jun 14, 2004

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

Kashmir: process is the product

By C. Raja Mohan

NEW DELHI, JUNE 13. As India and Pakistan launch this week a round of comprehensive talks on all bilateral issues, including Jammu and Kashmir, expectations of an early movement have already begun to rise around the world. But there is a danger that these unrealistic hopes would damage the incipient India-Pakistan engagement even before it takes off.

Can New Delhi and Islamabad bridge the potential mismatch between their assumptions and expectations? The answer rests in mobilising an unwavering commitment in both capitals to construct a survivable peace process.

A process is vastly different from a mere set of talks or a one-shot negotiation. A process, by definition, involves a series of actions that addresses the core concerns of the two sides in order to achieve a specific objective, or a political product.

For India, the desired outcome of the process is a good neighbourly relationship with Pakistan. Islamabad does not disagree but holds that an early resolution of the Kashmir question is the key. India is prepared to seriously address the issue, but wants the dialogue rooted in cooperative ties.

The wide-ranging talks beginning this week constitute the most structured interactions between the two countries in their bitter history. The last time they embarked on such an exercise was in 1998-99; it collapsed quickly amid the confrontation in Kargil. Will it be different this time?

On Tuesday, there will be talks on narcotics and drug-trafficking. Later in the week, nuclear confidence-building measures (CBMs) will be discussed. At the end of this month, the two Foreign Secretaries will exchange views on "peace and security" as well as Jammu and Kashmir.

And in July, top officials from the two Governments will discuss a range of other issues — from the question of ending the conflict in the Siachen glacier to building an overland gas pipeline. Meanwhile, the External Affairs Minister, Natwar Singh, will meet his counterpart, Khurshid Mohammad Kasuri, at least three times in the next few weeks on the margins of various multilateral forums.

But Kashmir could yet be the deal-breaker. Pakistan wants early and decisive progress on this issue. At an international conference in Islamabad last week, the Pakistan President, Pervez Musharraf, rejected the notion that the Kashmir issue was a "complex" one and could take a long time to settle. He declared that if there was "sincerity and flexibility" on both sides, it should take no time to resolve the Kashmir question.

Gen. Musharraf denies he is holding progress in the rest of the relationship a hostage to the Kashmir issue; but he underlines the importance of early answers to the problem.

He reiterated his methodology for resolving the Kashmir question: recognise the importance of the issue; go beyond the traditionally stated positions; eliminate those ideas unacceptable to either side; and settle on a solution that is acceptable to India, Pakistan and the Kashmiris. Simple, so far as Gen. Musharraf is concerned.

But how do we get from here to there? Sincerity and flexibility are important virtues in any political process. Even if the two sides are sincere and flexible, they will need to create political conditions under which the settlement on Kashmir will be endorsed by the largest number of people in both countries.

The realisation of desired outcomes lies in the nature of the process itself; in ensuring that the process lives long enough to change the perceptions on Jammu and Kashmir and open up possibilities that are not foreseen. Only a continuous peace process will ensure that the problem of Kashmir can be re-cast to make it more amenable for a lasting solution.

The trick in imparting longevity to the peace process lies in undertaking three tasks at the same time. Unveil a series of Kashmir-related CBMs; begin substantive negotiations on the Kashmir question; and initiate cooperation in other areas.

A successful negotiation on Kashmir will need considerable political imagination and reason on both sides. Changing the political environment in Kashmir is necessary to anchor the putative dialogue on the Kashmir question.

The construction of a string of reciprocal actions on Kashmir should form the core of the first phase of the process. Not all these need to be negotiated.

Every unilateral step by one side could invite a reciprocal one from the other and create a virtuous circle of deepening mutual confidence.

Pakistan has kept its promise of keeping cross-border infiltration low in the last few months. If that violence stays low, India should not be averse to undertaking a series of unilateral actions on its part to improve the security environment in Jammu and Kashmir.

A violence-free atmosphere and political measures in Kashmir will reinforce each other and unfreeze thinking on both sides of the border.

An early harvest of CBMs could create the basis for purposeful and simultaneous negotiations on resolving the Kashmir issue and the normalisation of bilateral relations.

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