The Hindu : Opinion / Editorials : <italics1>L'AFFAIRE</italics1> MODI

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Tuesday, Jun 22, 2004

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L'AFFAIRE MODI

ON THE FACE of it, the outcome of the Bharatiya Janata Party's parliamentary board meeting is intriguing. Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi will not be replaced "at the present juncture." This can be interpreted as repudiation by the Sangh Parivar's high command of the post-election attempt to discover in Mr. Modi's role in the Gujarat pogrom an overarching explanation for Verdict 2004, in other words a super scapegoat. More particularly, it can be read as a rebuff to Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who recently went public to the effect that not removing Mr. Modi after the "Gujarat riots" was a big mistake, that it contributed to the party's electoral debacle, and that he would insist on discussing the subject at the BJP's national executive committee meeting in Mumbai.

The matter may not be as simple as that. At this juncture, political realities do suggest that Mr. Modi will be replaced sooner than later. But there must be no linkage between this and any analysis of the outcome of the 14th general election — this is the diktat issued by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. On June 14 the RSS supremo, K. Sudarshan, took public issue with Mr. Vajpayee for suggesting that Gujarat was responsible for the election defeat. Raising the question why in that case the BJP did not lose the Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, he blamed "pressure" from the news media and from those who passed off as "modern, liberal and broad-minded" for Vajpayee-type responses. Subsequently, the RSS indicated that it might have no objection to Mr. Modi being replaced for mundane intra-party reasons, such as mishandling relations with ministerial or legislative party colleagues and his style of functioning.

What all this signals is a return to muscular Hindutva. If it means that the public image of Mr. Vajpayee will take a beating, so be it. After all, he failed at the height of his power to get rid of Mr. Modi — and has failed a second time. An army that rode euphorically into the election campaign on the great white charger of the `Vajpayee factor' — a post-poll survey conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies and published in The Hindu of May 20, 2004 revealed that had Mr. Vajpayee not been at the helm, the BJP would have polled a whopping 5.7 percentage points less than it did — has little patience with his equivocations now. Mr. Modi may well be dispensable but it is vital to the purposes and future of the Sangh Parivar — and the BJP as its political instrument — that absolutely no contrition is shown on what happened in Gujarat post-Godhra. Through the Hindutva lens, that would be an intolerable sign of ideological impotence. Refocussing on issues such as the Ram temple, the common civil code, Article 370, and crude minority baiting is likely to follow. The Shiv Sena has already indicated that it will fight the coming Assembly elections in Maharashtra on the Hindutva plank. Mr. Modi's usefulness in such a campaign may yet be demonstrated. The point is that irrespective of whether he stays on as Chief Minister or goes (on account of dissidence within the party), he will remain the enduring symbol of the power and potency of jihadi Hindutva. That is the RSS line. As for Mr. Vajpayee, he has acquired a formidable reputation for vacillating and flip-flopping on such defining issues. After unleashing a verbal barrage against Gujarat's infamous Chief Minister, he has claimed intriguingly that the Modi issue had become "a thing of the past." Will the former Prime Minister turn out to be the super scapegoat in all this? Or will he be able to claim a measure of vindication in the next round?

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