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A PALACE COUP

THE PALACE COUP that saw the exit of Pakistan's Prime Minister, Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali, reminds everyone that real power vests in the military-dominated establishment — not in the elected representatives of the people of the country. The change is ostensibly being carried out in accordance with constitutional proprieties and parliamentary norms. The processes that were set off with Mr. Jamali proposing Chaudhari Shujaat Hussain as his interim successor are expected to unfold in a smooth enough manner over the next few weeks. Mr. Hussain is expected to step aside once the current Finance Minister, Shaukat Aziz, wins a seat in the National Assembly and gets elected as leader of the Lower House of Parliament. While the parliamentary wing of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (Qaid-e-Azam) is apparently prepared to live with these developments, there can be little doubt that Mr. Jamali was forced to quit office. He declared only on June 25, the day before he announced his resignation, that his Government was not under threat since the President had not levelled charges against it as a collective entity or against any of its members. However, the deposed Prime Minister is not likely to do anything more than complain in private since he lacks political clout and won the post two years ago only because he represented the most convenient choice for President Pervez Musharraf and the rest of the establishment. Mr. Hussain, the supreme realist of Pakistan politics, is also unlikely to create any problems when the time comes for him to hand over the premiership.

A genial leader from Balochistan, Mr. Jamali possessed few political assets other than his acceptability to the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA). This conglomerate of six religious parties achieved remarkable success in the 2002 general election; it emerged as a significant bloc in Parliament, became the ruling combine in the North West Frontier Province, and the leading political force in Balochistan. The Pakistan establishment, which was then under pressure from the United States to launch a drive against militant extremists, believed that it needed to placate the religious parties at that juncture. Mr. Jamali failed in this task especially since he was unable to make the MMA change its position that General Musharraf should quit the post of Chief of the Army Staff if he wanted to continue as President after December 2004. General Musharraf might also have reckoned that he did not need to accord undue importance to the MMA since the religious parties, for all their protests, were unable to disrupt the spasmodic campaigns carried out against the militants.

Mr. Jamali's performance as Prime Minister was not bad at all, notably his handling of the process of détente with India. While his forced exit will not evoke any strong sentiments, the summary treatment he received at the hands of the establishment serves as a disquieting reminder to the Pakistani people that they are not free to choose or change their leaders. The Opposition parties led by former Prime Ministers Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif are likely to overcome their distaste for Mr. Jamali and his subservience to the President as they try to exploit the opportunity to highlight the establishment's machinations. Both Ms. Bhutto and Mr. Sharif are known for being autocrats while in power and turning advocates of democratic principles when out of office. However, they still command popular support and wider sections of the Pakistani polity might become receptive to their message that the non-existence of a true and healthy democratic order is attributable more to the military establishment's disdain for politicians rather than to the failings of the political class.

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