The Hindu : National : IMD forecasts normal monsoon in July

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Wednesday, Jun 30, 2004

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National

IMD forecasts normal monsoon in July

By Our Special Correspondent

NEW DELHI, JUNE 29. There is some cause for cheer on the farm front. The Indian Meteorological Department today announced that monsoon activity during July would be normal, which is crucial for the agriculture sector.

At a press conference, the IMD Director General, S.K. Srivastav, said an analysis by IMD scientists had shown that rainfall during July for the country was likely to be 98 per cent of the long period average (LPA), with a possible model error of plus or minus nine per cent. The current lull was only a temporary phenomenon. Already, conditions were becoming favourable and the monsoon was likely to get activated in the next few days. Consequently, the expectation is that rainfall could once again become vigorous from July 4.

Similar predictions have been made by agencies in other parts of the world. Institutions such as the U.S.-based National Center for Environmental Prediction and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have said that there was no possibility of the emergence of the El Nino phenomenon, at least till August. El Nino, a disruption of the ocean-atmosphere system in the tropic Pacific, adversely affects the Indian monsoon. The drought of 2002 was attributed to the emergence of El Nino in the monsoon months.

"We will carefully monitor the developments; though the predictions were positive, the likely evolution of neutral conditions of El Nino remain a matter of uncertainty," Dr. Srivastava said.

Additional data collected in the past two months had revalidated the forecast made on April 15 that the monsoon for the season as a whole would also be normal, that is, 100 per cent of the LPA. There were, however, some changes.

There was a slight increase in the probability of the rains being in excess — more than 110 per cent of the LPA — from four to seven per cent and a small decrease in the probability it being deficient — less than 90 per cent of the LPA — from four to three per cent.

The forecast revision is in keeping with the system introduced last year, whereby two predictions are made every year — once in mid-April and again in June-end, along with a forecast specifically for July since it was important for agricultural operations.

The first season-wide forecast is based on a model that considers the data available for eight parameters up to April. The second takes into account data for these parameters and two others, for which data is available only during May and June.

The two parameters are the speed of the easterly winds over the South Indian Ocean and the tendency of the sea surface temperatures over a particular region of the Pacific, called Nino 3.4.

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