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Global warming cuts rice output

MANILA: Global warming has cut rice harvests by at least 10 per cent and possibly much more, scientists in the Philippines reported on Wednesday after studying 12 years of rising temperatures and falling yields. The team, based at the International Rice Research Institute, said the impact could be significant for many of the world's poorest people, because rice production had to rise by 1 per cent a year to meet world demand. However, temperatures are predicted to rise further, and the scientists calculate that rice yields fall by 10 per cent for every 1 Centigrade rise in night-time temperature. The research used temperature data over 25 years and harvests over 12 years at the institute's farm near Manila. It is the first study done on harvests rather than scientific models, which predicted reductions of up to seven per cent. Shaobing Peng, the team's leader, said their conclusion was probably an underestimate, because the crops on the farm were better protected than those in most fields. ``In the farmers' fields there would be more pests and disturbances which would also affect the yields,'' he told the Guardian. ``There would also be more night-time humidity which would also have an impact.'' John Sheehy, another team member, said it was probable that rice, which ``repairs the wear and tear of growth during the night, has to work harder to do this at higher temperatures''. Many climatologists predict a global rise of 3.5 Centigrade this century, which, if the team's predictions prove accurate, could hit yields by a further 30 per cent.

Guardian Newspapers Limited 2004

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