The Hindu : International : An ominous phase in Sri Lanka

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Saturday, Jul 10, 2004

International

International

An ominous phase in Sri Lanka

By V.S. Sambandan

COLOMBO, JULY 9. Sri Lanka's two-year spell of non-fighting is under serious threat. The plunging levels of confidence on the Government by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) do not auger well for the continuation of the fragile ceasefire agreement, which has held, somewhat tenuously, for the past two years.

The prelude to a familiar pattern has started, which should be taken note of those involved in conflict resolution. The dynamics of peace-making has undeniably changed since the March 2 rebellion by V. Muralitharan, (`Col.' Karuna) the former special commander for two sensitive eastern districts — Batticaloa and Amparai. Ominously, the added strain on the relationship between the state and the rebels has come during `Black July', the island's most dreaded month given the LTTE's past record of striking at will, which has started on a bloody note with attacks on the LTTE cadres on `Black Tigers' day and retaliatory strikes by the rebels.

Wednesday's failed suicide bomber marked not just a continuation of the new dynamics that set in since the March rebellion, but also started a new phase of political posturing by the Government as well as the Tigers. For the first time in its history, the LTTE distanced itself from a suicide bombing and ended up "condemning" it as an act "aimed a destabilising the peace process.'' The Government, for its part, downplayed the incident. Though it did not exonerate the LTTE, Colombo's immediate reaction made no direct reference to the Tigers, restricting its comment to stating that the "perpetrators" had "reverted to violence.''

Meanwhile, whisper campaigns were out by the supporters of the LTTE that the suicide bombing `could be some other Tamil group,' taking the situation along yet another twist. For, if there are serious takers for such an argument, it would imply a party in addition to the LTTE that the state would have to take cognisance of.

The downward spiral that trapped Sri Lanka's politics since March has further pushed away any meaningful hope of a resumption of the stalled peace process. The drastic transformation in the east after `Col.' Karuna's rebellion has effectively dashed any possibility that LTTE would be willing to be engaged by Colombo. The suicide strike, though a failed mission is yet another warning signal that the Tigers will, and can, strike at will.

The days ahead are likely to see the LTTE further harden its position on resumption of talks.

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