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Saturday, Jul 10, 2004

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Blair's back to the wall

By Hasan Suroor

Tony Blair's detractors insist that his seven-yearold premiership has entered the twilight zone.

IT IS a seasonal thing and with every season the whispers get louder and louder. But this time, it is more like shouting from the rooftops and you will have to be profoundly detached not to pick up the noises about Tony Blair's "imminent" departure from Downing Street.

It has come to a point where the British Prime Minister is said to have even put down a possible date in his diary for announcing his retirement but as one political commentator ruefully noted "that day came and went"— and nothing happened. Incidentally, that date was supposed to have been Friday, June 2. Yet his detractors, who appear to outnumber the once strong and rock-solid army of Blair-ites, insist that his seven-year-old premiership has entered the twilight zone from which he can go only in one direction: out of No. 10.

They even claim to have detected smoke coming out of the Prime Minister's kitchen Cabinet — a sure sign, they say, that something is brewing. The first hint that Mr. Blair might have ceased to be politically invincible came from the Deputy Prime Minister, John Prescott, who, though never quite comfortable with Mr. Blair's pro-market agenda, has remained loyal to him. In remarks that he knew would push everything else out of the front pages and be subjected to a close textual analysis, he likened the mood in the Government and the Labour Party to the uncertainty associated with a tremor. He said "tectonic plates" had started to shift and people were "positioning" themselves accordingly.

Predictably, the statement set off feverish speculation in Westminster and the fact that it was not seriously contested by those who would normally rush to rescue Mr. Blair from negative headlines was seen as a confirmation that Downing Street had become rather an unstable region. Then came another free hit — and from another Blair loyalist and a senior Cabinet Minister. John Reid, the Health Secretary and regarded as a Labour "bruiser," declared an interest in contesting for the leadership in the event of a vacancy — reinforcing Mr. Prescott's theory that Ministers were positioning themselves ahead of an anticipated political tremor.

But the really big blow was delivered by the ultimate Blair loyalist, Peter Mandelson — a former Cabinet Minister, and one of the architects of New Labour, along with Mr. Blair. In a television interview with Alastair Campbell, another hardcore Blair-ite and until recently the Prime Minister's all-powerful communications chief, Mr. Mandelson said that in any battle for succession in the event of Mr. Blair's departure his vote would go to Gordon Brown, the Chancellor, whom he is accused of "betraying" in the 1994 leadership election which paved the way for Mr. Blair to become the Prime Minister. A Blair loyalist offering an olive branch to a rival contender for power is hardly a good omen.

Mr. Prescott could have been dismissed as gaffe-prone ("John is John," as Mr Blair once famously said to explain away an embarrassing situation caused by his deputy) and Mr. Reid could be accused of being over-ambitious. But "Mandy"? He is not known to speak out of turn, and by talking about a succession so publicly at a time when Mr. Blair looks particularly vulnerable he has, inevitably, got tongues wagging. It is being asked whether like the rest of the country Mr. Blair's inner circle, too, has started to think that he has overstayed the welcome, and that the time has come for him to quit before things get ugly.

Jackie Ashley, a Labour Party supporter and political columnist for The Guardian, echoed this when she urged him to quit now as an "act of grace and wisdom." It was in his own interest as in the larger interest of the party that he stood down now, she wrote arguing that the longer he stayed on, blocking what she called Mr. Brown's "legitimate claim to replace him," the more damage he might do to the party. "Most Prime Ministers stay too long. They miss the moment. If Blair did go soon... he would be handing over a going concern to a man who not only wants it badly, but has clear ideas about what to do with it. Wouldn't that be an act of grace and wisdom," she asked.

Mr. Blair, however, gives no indication that he has any intention of quitting just yet — or is even conscious of the gravity of the storm brewing around him. He insists that he still has got enough appetite for power to see him through a third term in office to complete "unfinished" business. Brave words, but not quite in sync with the mood in his party, or indeed in the country. The man, once hailed as "Teflon Tony," is now widely perceived as badly damaged — damaged by his own policies, notably on Iraq, and a style infuriatingly at odds with the temper of the Labour party.

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