The Hindu : Opinion / Editorials : EDWARDS ON THE TICKET

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Saturday, Jul 10, 2004

Opinion

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EDWARDS ON THE TICKET

THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE John Kerry went with the electoral arithmetic, overlooking factors such as experience and compatibility, when he selected Senator John Edwards as his running mate for the presidential election. Mr. Kerry is known to have a better personal rapport with two others who were on the short-list for the vice-presidential slot — Representative Richard Gephardt and Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack — than he has with Mr. Edwards who is relatively new to politics. However, the presidential contender did not need the extra gravitas that Mr. Gephardt or Mr. Vilsack could bring to the ticket. Mr. Kerry, who is perceived as a reserved patrician by many people in the United States, needed a charismatic running mate who could energise the party base and attract fresh support. During the party primaries Mr. Edwards radiated an optimism that appeared all the more sincere because he had worked his way up from humble origins; his cheery persona will provide a necessary counterpoint to the excessive seriousness that characterised the Kerry campaign until recently. The Democratic panel has become geographically more representative with a New England native in the top slot and a Southerner in the second. While the Massachusetts Senator has proven expertise in the spheres of foreign policy and national security, his partner from North Carolina has a refreshingly new approach to social and economic policies. Since Messrs Kerry and Edwards refrained from attacking each other too fiercely during the primary campaign even though they were the main contestants, they should be able to overcome any residual rancour.

With the Democratic Party's national convention to be held at the end of July, the Kerry-Edwards ticket will enjoy intense publicity that it will try to convert into a surge in popularity. The Democrats hope they will gain enough bounce to cross a worrying hurdle in their path. While opinion polls show that more than 50 per cent of Americans do not approve of President George W. Bush's performance in office, Mr. Kerry has so far failed to win over all those who are disaffected with the incumbent. Scholars who have studied American presidential elections observe that a two-phase process usually unfolds before an incumbent is voted out. As a first step, the electorate concludes that it is not satisfied with the current office holder. In the second and more crucial phase, voters need to believe they have a better option before they vote for a change. Messrs Kerry and Edwards will have ample opportunity to convince Americans that they offer a genuine alternative as they will be in the spotlight for much of the month.

The electoral outcome is likely to be shaped more by the march of events than the quality of the campaigns run by the two parties. A majority of Americans appear to be disillusioned with the state of the economy and the military occupation of Iraq and a significant change in either sphere will have an impact on the results. Mr. Bush had drawn some encouragement from the signs of an economic turnaround but analysts believe that optimism is as yet unwarranted. While executive power has been nominally transferred to an Iraqi interim government, the U.S. military presence in the West Asian country is not likely to be reduced or buttressed by its few allies. With the Iraqi national resistance inflicting an ever-increasing toll on the occupying army, Mr. Bush's troubles are not likely to end. Mr. Kerry will have no one else to blame if he cannot seize the initiative and go for the kill.

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