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TESTING THE WATERS

IN GIVING THE district units in Andhra Pradesh a free hand in deciding whether or not to have an electoral understanding with the Telugu Desam Party for the local body polls, the Bharatiya Janata Party has sought to use these low-stake elections as a testing ground. After blaming regional allies for the party's poor showing in the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP leadership could not avoid taking this hesitant step in Andhra Pradesh where it met with a debacle. Leaders of the State unit of the party quite obviously wanted to distance themselves from the nine-year rule of the TDP under Chandrababu Naidu, who is now being seen as an electoral liability. Moreover, they must have sensed an opportunity to contest a larger number of local body seats than would be possible in a State-wide alliance with the TDP. Many in the BJP also saw the continuance of the tie-up with the TDP as an obstacle to the BJP's growth at the grassroots. The `Blame-it-on-the-TDP' stance also allowed the State leaders of the BJP to deflect accountability for the rout in the Lok Sabha polls. Some of them were under pressure from the middle and lower rungs to quit their party posts following the debacle. The BJP's new strategy for the local body polls is thus dictated by Andhra Pradesh-specific considerations of realpolitik.

But a half-measure is only a half-measure. By allowing the district units a "free hand," the State BJP evidently wants to disown any responsibility for any friction in relations with the regional party at the local level. This allows the party to keep the door open for a patch-up with the TDP in the event of the new tactic failing to click. Interestingly, the decision on a different seat-sharing strategy for the local body polls came about the same time as the State executive of the BJP resolved to maintain the status quo on the alliance issue. In the face of a strong demand for a review of the alliance with the TDP, the leadership of the BJP hit upon the "free hand" idea for the local body polls as a compromise. The State leaders of the party might also have been guided by the fact that even in the previous local body polls, the alliance did not work uniformly at the grassroots level. Another factor that must have entered their calculations is that a junior partner tends to benefit less from such contests than the senior partner. Smaller electorates provide the smaller parties greater scope for upstaging the bigger parties in multi-cornered contests. Also, as the administrative units are smaller, the smaller parties have an opportunity to wrest control of at least some of the local bodies, which might not be possible if they are forced to settle for a smaller percentage of seats in all areas. Unlike in the Assembly or Lok Sabha polls, where alliances make possible a good yield from a limited number of seats, smaller parties can with reason fancy their chances in more seats when it comes to local body elections.

Not surprisingly, the TDP leadership is unwilling to read too much into the BJP's decision. Mr. Chandrababu Naidu had discouraged partymen from blaming the BJP for the TDP's defeat. This is clearly not the time for the TDP to alienate its ally. Although the BJP appears to be thinking differently, the party is willing to wait for a reality check before deciding on the future of the alliance.

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