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Friday, Jul 23, 2004

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Poor economy threatens Berlusconi

By Sophie Arie

Many Italians voted for Silvio Berlusconi because they believed he could replicate his personal success for the economy as a whole. The long-awaited upturn has yet to materialise.

"SILVIO BERLUSCONI is like a comet," said taxi driver Paolo Venturini. "He rose from nowhere. He dazzled everyone like the sun. And now he is fizzling out. Everyone has their moment in Italian politics. You just have to be patient. It never lasts too long."

Several times last week it looked as though Italy's Prime Minister, despite his billions and his media empire, was about to follow his post-war predecessors and be thrown prematurely out of the government saddle.

Discontent within his coalition boiled over with his decision to appoint himself interim economics minister two weeks ago when his smallest ally threatened to pull the plug on the Government unless a new economics minister was rapidly instated. The Opposition screamed for snap elections.

But Mr. Berlusconi pulled through. After a week of marathon talks, high drama and exquisite pasta dinners, late on July 16 the Prime Minister named the widely respected Domenico Siniscalco, Director-General of the Italian Treasury, as the new Economy and Finance Minister to replace Giulio Tremonti, who resigned a fortnight ago.

Italians are still reeling at the audacity of their Premier, the richest man in Italy, who saw no conflict of interests in personally running the nation's economy. He had already doubled up as Foreign Minister in the first months of his Government, but three years down the line patience has worn thin.

"Sometimes it appears Berlusconi has done so well in his own life that he thinks he is infallible," said Sergio Romano, a commentator for the Corriere della Sera daily and a former Ambassador to the United States. "He seems to have a blind spot when it comes to the issue of conflicts of interests. He cannot see it."

Opposition critics cried foul last week when the Berlusconi Government passed a long-awaited conflict of interests law, which critics said was so watered down it amounted to a "non-law." The businessman turned politician, who controls 95 per cent of Italy's terrestrial TV, will hardly be constrained by the law.

Yet although Mr. Berlusconi has triumphantly announced his Government will serve, united, until 2006, the taxi driver is not the only one who believes that the Prime Minister's time has passed.

"Italians voted for Berlusconi because he is so successful," explained Mr. Romano. "They thought he could do the same for the country as he has done for himself. But Berlusconi has failed. He has spent three years fighting personal battles and not defending the interests of the country."

Not only has Me. Berlusconi not produced the economic miracle he promised, his first three years in government have ended in economic paralysis. Jobs are scarce, salaries are not always paid on time and prices for everything from cabbage to cars have soared since the arrival of the euro. Many middle-class Italians can hardly afford to go out for dinner.

As Italians struggle to pay their bills, they find it increasingly hard to appreciate their Prime Minister's need for six swimming pools, 2,000 different kinds of cactus, a mini-amphitheatre and an emergency bunker in the grounds of his Sardinian holiday home.

But some argue that Mr. Berlusconi's power to communicate and his stranglehold on the Italian media may yet mean he can bounce back from last week's low.

"I would not say it's over for Berlusconi yet," said Paul Ginsborg, a leading expert on contemporary Italian history and author of a new analysis, Silvio Berlusconi: Television, Power and Patrimony (Verso Books, 2004). "It's tempting to write him off as a shooting star. But if the economy picks up he may well get his act together again."

Mr. Ginsborg points out that Mr. Berlusconi's use of his wealth and his media empire could still win him public support. The image of Mr. Berlusconi is omnipresent in Italy, on television screens, in magazines, on recent election hoardings.

"It's always the same image of a smiling, clean-cut, reassuring face," says Mr. Ginsborg. "It sends a subliminal message that reaches half an ear while you are doing the washing or the shopping."

Mr. Ginsborg points out that the majority of Berlusconi voters are women and that 44.8 per cent of housewives voted for his party, Forza Italia, in 2001 elections. The proportion of housewives who voted for Mr. Berlusconi rose directly in proportion to the number of hours of television they watched a day.

"Berlusconi appeals to the average Italian who is not interested in politics," says Mr. Ginsborg. "He, himself, says he is an anti-politician. He does not speak like a politician. He does not behave like a politician. I don't think he likes politics very much."

Linguistics expert Nora Galli agrees: "He has replaced conventional Italian politics with the `politics of the Self'," she says. "The language he uses sends the same message all the time: `I am not representing Italy. I represent myself.'"

But Mr. Ginsborg points out that despite his facelift earlier this year this image of an energetic `new man' on the Italian scene is fading. Now 67, the man whose political career has been built around his personal image looks haggard by the end of each day. — Guardian Newspapers Limited 2004

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