The Hindu : Opinion / Editorials : SPIRALLING CRISIS

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Wednesday, Aug 25, 2004

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SPIRALLING CRISIS

THE BLOCKADE OF Kathmandu Valley by Maoist guerrillas is an unprecedented show of strength by the eight-year-old insurgency. It constitutes a direct challenge to the authority of the Nepal Government. The capital city, which depends on land routes for most of its supplies, has been cut off since the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist called the blockade earlier this week demanding the release of its arrested cadres. The ease with which the Maoists have managed to ensure compliance with their order is not surprising, considering that the armed insurgency has grown rapidly since its launch in 1996 and now affects most of the land-locked country. The insurgents may not have absolute control of any part of Nepal in the manner of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam in Sri Lanka, but they have pretty much succeeded in paralysing the work of government everywhere by relying on a combination of fear and sympathy to enforce their writ. Until recently, Kathmandu was one place that was relatively immune from the insurgency. True, the Maoists had carried out a couple of bomb attacks and killed a politician in the city. Earlier this month, they forced the closure of several businesses located in the Valley. But now, by effectively sealing the capital off, they have shown they can move the insurgency where it will hit the country hardest.

The manner in which the Sher Bahadur Deuba Government responds to the crisis could well determine the future of Nepal's 14-year-old democracy. The threat from the Maoists, who aim to establish a republic by doing away with the country's constitutional monarchy but whose commitment to a multi-party democracy is far from clear, is only one aspect of the problem. Another threat emanates from within Kathmandu. King Gyanendra has made no secret of his desire to play a bigger and more direct role in governance than is laid down for him in the country's 1990 Constitution. His record speaks for itself. In 2002, he dismissed an elected government and assumed executive powers. He appointed Mr. Deuba Prime Minister in June this year only after months of agitation and street protests by five political parties. The new Government is a coalition of four parties including the Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist-Leninist (UML), the country's second largest party. Although not elected by the people, it closely reflects the composition of the Parliament that the King dissolved two years ago and represents Nepal's best chance yet to craft a national consensus on meeting the Maoist challenge in an imaginative way. But thus far the Government has not provided any evidence of clear thinking on the issues at stake. A leadership vacuum at this crucial stage can only create opportunities for interference by the monarch. Mr. Deuba would do well to win the cooperation of Girija Prasad Koirala, who heads the Nepali Congress, the country's biggest political party; he petulantly refused to join the multi-party government and has been working at cross-purposes with it ever since.

The situation should cause concern in India, which shares a 1,500-km-long open border with Nepal. The Maoists are known to have links with like-minded groups on this side of the border. They have openly expressed their animosity towards India, not least because the Indian Government has provided weapons and training to the Royal Nepal Army to fight the insurgency and arrested some of their leaders who were in hiding in India. Indians run many of the businesses the Maoists have threatened in Nepal. India's position that the insurgency, which has real economic and social roots, cannot be countered militarily and that all the constitutional and democratic forces in Nepal must come together to find a political solution to it, is sound. New Delhi must continue to encourage such a resolution to Nepal's complicated crisis to which many actors have contributed.

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