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Friday, Sep 03, 2004

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Opinion - Leader Page Articles

When neighbours meet

By Amit Baruah

The coming meeting of the Foreign Ministers of India and Pakistan is unlikely to produce the big steps needed to take the dialogue process forward.

IF INDIA and Pakistan cannot do the small things, can they do the big things? That is the question the two Governments need to answer as they sit down for yet another round of discussions first between the Foreign Secretaries and then the Foreign Ministers.

At the end of June this year, the two countries agreed "in principle" to reopen the Mumbai and Karachi consulates. Two months have passed and the first steps have not been taken by New Delhi and Islamabad to do the needful. Not a single Pakistani High Commission official has travelled to Mumbai so far to identify any properties as planned. While New Delhi had indicated that an official from the mission could travel to Mumbai, the Pakistanis in the capital have asked for help from the Government to locate suitable premises.

At the end of the day, with the Foreign Ministers to meet in New Delhi on September 5-6, no progress has been made in the direction of re-opening the consulates (making the Karachi consulate operational is linked to Mumbai). As officials and Ministers prepare for yet another round of India-Pakistan dialogue, the question is: why has progress not been made on reopening the consulates?

So far, the two Foreign Ministers have met three times — in Qingdao, China, in Jakarta and in Islamabad — enough opportunity. There has also been a "reported" meeting between the National Security Adviser, J.N. Dixit, and his Pakistani counterpart, Tariq Aziz, which would imply the continuance of the Aziz-Brajesh Mishra dialogue track. Mr. Mishra, as Mr. Dixit's predecessor, was key to putting the India-Pakistan dialogue process back on track.

So, contact has been there. Progress on nuclear confidence-building measures, restoring the strength of the High Commissions, and re-opening the consulates was agreed to in June. This was when the Foreign Secretaries met to discuss Kashmir and peace and security, including confidence-building measures.

Agreements can take place "in principle", but putting them in operation is a separate ball game. High-sounding accords that raise expectations among the people must be backed by concrete action. To be sure, articulate Indian and Pakistani officials will be able to provide enough excuses why there has been no progress on the consulate issue.

The consulate issue is just one of many. In every area, even when India and Pakistan agree on something, the decision-making process is either so slow or suspicions are so great that often progress is nil.

Islamabad has a wish list for the Foreign Ministers' talks. Heading that list will be the involvement of Kashmiri separatist leaders in the dialogue process. In January this year, when Pakistan agreed to classify, for the first time ever, that Kashmir was a bilateral issue to be resolved between New Delhi and Islamabad, many were bewildered by the climb-down. What had happened to all the `Kashmir first' statements made by the Pakistani strongman, Pervez Musharraf?

When Gen. Musharraf agreed to the January statement, the ghost of Abdul Qadeer Khan and his peddling of nuclear weapons' secrets was already haunting him — but this wasn't known to all and sundry at the time.

Today, the General has been able to ride out the Qadeer Khan storm by his effective assistance to the United States in combating the Al Qaeda elements in Pakistan. He is under no pressure to make further concessions to India. A return to the `Kashmir first' approach can now be expected.

This is not to say that Pakistan will break off the bilateral dialogue with India. But, today it wants India to show "comfort" to the people of Kashmir. Its "no passport" stance for travellers using a possible Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus service is a sign that the Pakistani position is hardening.

Public statements emanating from Islamabad and New Delhi in recent days, too, have not been positive.

While all this may not have clouded the prospects of an India-Pakistan rapprochement, the fact is that the Foreign Ministers' dialogue is unlikely to produce the big steps needed to take the process forward. Under the Vajpayee Government, the formal dialogue was the "front" with the real decisions having been taken in advance in the Aziz-Mishra dialogue. In the India-Pakistan scheme, the "pre-cooked" meal goes down best. Usually this means that when India and Pakistan want to show progress, their officials meet before hand to work out details of what is to be announced. For the sake of the dialogue process, one can only hope that the "pre-cooked" mechanism has been used on this occasion as well.

This, of course, does not detract from implementing decisions that have already been taken. Like reopening the Mumbai and Karachi consulates.

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