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Thursday, Sep 09, 2004

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Opinion - Leader Page Articles

Engaging Pakistan

By C. Raja Mohan

It would be unwise for New Delhi to assume, in the wake of the successful first round of talks with Pakistan, that it can delay or avoid engaging Islamabad on Kashmir.

THE RESULTS from the first round of the India-Pakistan engagement might not have been too many. But they have given a different direction to the relations between the two countries. Given the deep differences over Kashmir and terrorism — reiterated publicly after the talks in New Delhi between the External Affairs Minister, Natwar Singh, and the Pakistan Foreign Minister, Khurshid Mehmood Kasuri — the process indeed remains fragile. Nevertheless, the prospects of expanding cooperation, including in new areas such as energy, suggest that the peace process is beginning to gain some traction despite the divide on Kashmir.

But the most important feature to emerge from the first round of the composite dialogue is the outline of a new Indian strategy towards Pakistan. If New Delhi can hold on to its basic elements and build on them, the new approach could lay the basis for a fundamental reorientation of the relationship with Islamabad.

The first element of the new strategy is the recognition by India of the need for a sustained engagement with Pakistan, irrespective of the many accumulated grievances in India, including the most recent ones on cross-border terrorism. To suggest that New Delhi must engage Islamabad in spite of the provocations might look like a weak-kneed policy. The policy will come under the charge that it will embolden the leadership in Pakistan to further intensify cross-border infiltration.

This criticism, however, misses the central point that Pakistan remains the biggest strategic challenge to India. Transforming the relationship with Islamabad is a responsibility that New Delhi cannot escape, come what may. Constant tactical innovation is necessary to achieve this strategic objective. But in arguing that it cannot engage Islamabad except under certain circumstances, New Delhi cedes its principal advantage — India looms large on Pakistan's state and society and what it does matters in a fundamental sense. In avoiding contact with Pakistan or making it too conditional, it is India that is forsaking its opportunities to change the relationship.

Secondly, India has begun to appreciate Pakistan's internal complexity. Thanks to the demonology that has been cultivated in India over the years, the tendency is to view Pakistan in simplistic terms. But Pakistan, like all large countries, is not a monolith. Its internal differences are real even when a seemingly powerful military figure such as Pervez Musharraf holds the reins. He can change Prime Ministers at will; and his authority over the political system appears complete. At the same time, Gen. Musharraf continues to struggle to achieve real legitimacy for the structures he has put in place. The political class is sullen and the question of his discarding the uniform does not go away. There is trouble brewing in Baluchistan. The situation in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir is none too comforting. He is under great pressure from the United States to crack down on the very extremist forces that his armed forces have nurtured for the last two-and-a- half decades. The Pakistan Army had to undertake difficult military operations in south Waziristan and they have now been extended to north Waziristan. In acting to meet the demands from Washington on the Al-Qaeda, Gen. Musharraf has made himself a personal target of Islamic extremism in Pakistan.

It is one thing for India to argue, rightly, that Gen. Musharraf has not yet cracked down on Kashmir-related militant groups operating in Pakistan. But it is entirely another matter not to see the real box that Gen. Musharraf finds himself in and the unstable dynamics inside Pakistan. Having been trapped in a box, Gen. Musharraf has certainly been more forthcoming. It makes sense for India then to find ways to move forward on a whole range of issues at the present.

Thirdly, for the first time in decades, India has figured out the importance of pursuing a pro-active policy towards Pakistan. In the past, it was Pakistan that always came up with new proposals and it was India that disposed them. In contrast, India has now put 72 proposals on the table for expanded cooperation with Pakistan. These range from actions on nuclear stability to Jammu and Kashmir and people-to-people contact. It has been Pakistan's turn to be either reticent or reluctant. Holding the initiative is central to any military or diplomatic strategy. Having taken the high ground by unveiling a different vision of India-Pakistan relations, New Delhi must now persist.

Fourthly, India has begun to see the value of acting unilaterally. No nation can completely set aside considerations of reciprocity in any negotiation. But when reciprocity becomes a mantra, as it had in India's dealings with its neighbours over the last few decades, it becomes a millstone on diplomacy. Reciprocity then meant allowing Pakistan to define the nature and scope of the bilateral relations. Opening India's doors, say, to group tourism for religious purposes, would make sense for revenue generation.

There is a whole range of areas in relation to economic cooperation and people-to-people contact where India can simply act unilaterally and change the dynamics on the ground. Having put up 72 proposals for negotiation, India must now demonstrate its good faith by acting on some of them unilaterally.

Fifthly, India has consciously or unconsciously begun to introduce a regional dimension to its policy towards Pakistan. The consequences are bound to be fascinating and unconventional. When it comes to large neighbours with long borders, it is unwise to treat diplomacy as an exclusive national activity. For far too long, India has treated engagement with Pakistan as taking positions and defending them to the death. So long as there was no real relationship on the ground, in terms of movement of goods and people across the border, this approach seemed to make some sense.

Given India's new emphasis on expanded people-to-people contact and greater trade relations, the time has come for it to involve its States neighbouring Pakistan — Punjab, Rajasthan, and Gujarat — in the proposed expansion of the bilateral relationship. India must also try and revive the historic ties between Mumbai and Karachi. (The contested terrain of Jammu and Kashmir is naturally in a different category.)

To some extent, the Indian proposals to open old trade routes between the two Punjabs, renew rail connectivity between Rajasthan and Sindh, ferry links between Mumbai and Karachi, the offer of moving diesel from Jalandhar to Lahore and the agreement to have a "special day" bus service between Amritsar and Lahore to allow the movement of Sikh pilgrims across the border reflect the new approach.

But this must be just the beginning. As the appetite of the people is whetted for cross-border movement, India must be prepared to come up with ideas that are bold in the current context but which will be natural in terms of the longer history of the subcontinent. For example, leaders of the Sikh community are asking why only a "special day service" between Amritsar and Lahore. Why can there not be daily services between the two cities?

More important is to let the political establishments and civil societies across the border begin an intensive interaction. The Chief Minister of Punjab visited Lahore in January. A return visit by the Chief Minister of West Punjab is on the cards. New Delhi must also promote reciprocal visits between the political leaders of Sindh on the Pakistani side and Rajasthan and Gujarat on the Indian side. Even more important is the interaction between the local chambers of commerce and a whole range of institutions that have common interests in a shared region.

The "out of the box" thinking in relation to Pakistan that has been demanded by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has already begun to creep up on India's foreign policy. Where it is missing so far is in relation to Jammu and Kashmir. As the engagement with Pakistan takes shape at the highest level in the coming weeks and months, New Delhi must get its act together on Jammu and Kashmir. India will have to come up with creative approaches both on the internal and external dimensions of the Kashmir question.

India says it is prepared for a substantive negotiation on Kashmir with Pakistan. It would be unwise for New Delhi to assume, in the wake of the successful first round of talks with Pakistan, that it can delay or avoid engaging Islamabad on the subject. Such an attitude will only undermine India's promising new strategy towards Pakistan. A demonstration of India's commitment to improve the security and political conditions within the Valley and to negotiate purposefully on the subject with Pakistan are critical to sustaining the peace process and transforming the bilateral relationship.

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