The Hindu : Opinion / News Analysis : Lurking fear about larger neighbour

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Wednesday, Sep 15, 2004

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Opinion - News Analysis

Lurking fear about larger neighbour

By Siddharth Varadarajan

Dhaka: In June, when the Bangladesh Foreign Minister, Morshed Khan, visited New Delhi to greet the incoming Manmohan Singh Government, he said bilateral relations were on the upswing and that he and his Indian counterpart, Natwar Singh, had agreed not to speak to each other "through the media" but through the telephone. Last week, however, Mr. Khan appeared to disregard this sensible agreement in vigorously criticising the Indian Government before a conference room full of journalists. His remarks on trade, water-sharing and terrorism — which were replete with bitterness, anger and sarcasm — prompted a retired Bangladeshi diplomat to describe the speech as "thought-provoking, with the emphasis on the latter word."

It is not clear what the minister thought the consequences of his outburst would be but the next day's headlines — "Morshed blasts Delhi for `unfair trade'" — must surely not have come as a surprise to him. Given the prickliness of South Block, he must also have known that his broadside would generate a tough response. Coming on the eve of bilateral secretary-level talks between the respective water resources and Home Ministries — where a number of key issues and proposals are to be discussed — Mr. Khan's words led one Indian official to express pessimism about the meetings' outcome. "At this point, I think all bets are off".

Why did Mr. Khan say what he did? What has changed since the apparent bonhomie of June, and have bilateral ties now hit rock bottom?

Rivalry is the reason

As with most things in Bangladesh, the answer lies in the rivalry between Prime Minister Khaleda Zia and Awami League leader Sheikh Hasina. Begum Khaleda had been keen for the Indian Prime Minsiter to visit Dhaka and had sent Mr. Khan in June for that reason. Not only did the sought-after visit not materialise, the UPA Government further upset the Bangladesh Prime Minister by receiving Sheikh Hasina in Delhi in July days before her own meeting with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at the BIMST-EC summit in Bangkok in early August. Finally, Mr. Singh's decision to speak only to Ms. Hasina after the August 21 grenade attack — and not Begum Khaleda — greatly upset the PM and her advisors. Indian officials say Mr. Singh called Ms. Hasina 45 minutes after learning of the attack on her life and that Begum Khaleda was not telephoned because "she was not the target". They also say that many other world leaders including Jack Straw and Donald McKinnon too spoke only to the Awami leader. However, given the sensitivities, New Delhi certainly erred in not speaking to the Bangladesh PM about what was after all an attack on the very existence of democracy in her country. Colin Powell did not make this mistake.

But if domestic politics is giving an unjustified rhetorical edge to Dhaka's policy towards India, the bulk of what Mr. Khan actually said — particularly his fears about India's river-linking project and the difficulty of Bangladeshi goods accessing Indian markets — resonates deeply with what most people here, cutting across party lines, feel about their larger neighbour.

Over-reaction

Indeed, the Indian side has to guard against over-reacting to what the Bangladeshi Minister said. Certainly, the veiled threat to get the Tata group to cancel its $2 billion investment plans in Bangladesh would be a case of cutting one's nose to spite one's face. Indian officials who are quick to write off Bangladeshis as "anti-Indian" should realise there is tremendous public support inside the country for the Tata project. "It is truly a win-win situation for both us", says Rehman Sobhan, economist.

He argues that if India were unilaterally to allow free trade from Bangladesh, FDI inflows would increase — and not just from India — leading to improved production structures, better wages and greater employment. There would also be another spill-over benefit: As work prospects in Bangladesh improve, the flow of job-seekers to India would slow down, perhaps removing another irritant in bilateral relations.

FTA holds the key

Indian officials say New Delhi is not averse to granting free access to Bangladeshi products but wants to embed this within the framework of a free trade agreement. An FTA in which Indian concessions are frontloaded while the Bangladeshis do not have to open up fully for, say, 10-15 years, might prove mutually acceptable. In exchange, India would have the right to expect Dhaka to soften its irrational opposition to the transhipment of goods to the north-east through its territory.

(Concluded)

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