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Thursday, Sep 16, 2004

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Opinion - Editorials

A DEEPENING QUANDARY

THE IRAQI RESISTANCE, which had until recently fought to deny ground to the occupation forces led by the United States, has now gone on the offensive by launching a wave of apparently coordinated attacks in many parts of the country. By about the middle of this year, these militant groups operating independently of one another had converted towns in the Sunni belt to the north and west of Baghdad and inner localities of Shia-dominated cities to the south into "no-go" zones for foreign troops. They have now begun to intensify their operations in areas supposedly under the control of the occupying army and its local allies. While the insurgents carried out 60 attacks a day on an average in April when the defensive phase of the resistance campaign was most intense, the average daily count in August was well over 80. There were indications of a loose co-ordination among the different groups even in the earlier phase but recently some smaller groups declared that they were placing themselves under the command of more powerful local outfits. The resistance is still not a unified movement and divisions persist between the Shias and Sunnis, and between religious militants and secular nationalists. However, the fact that near-simultaneous strikes are taking place in different pockets of Iraq appears to indicate that there is now greater cooperation among the disparate groups.

It is true the attacks have claimed the lives of many more Iraqis than Americans. However, that has not caused a cleavage between the militants and their compatriots of a more pacific bent. For the most part, those who are uninvolved in militancy express the view that these deaths are attributable to the fact that the country is under occupation; they vent their rage on the foreign forces even after militant strikes that are directed solely against Iraqi policemen or government officials. A public response of this nature has deepened the quandary that the occupying powers find themselves in. They cannot use all the force at their command to batter their way into and take control of the insurgent enclaves since a large number of innocent bystanders are very likely to be killed in the course of such action. That would enrage uncommitted Iraqis and swell the ranks of the insurgents. At the same time the occupation forces cannot afford to leave the militant groups undisturbed in their sanctuaries; the resistance can only grow stronger if it is provided the opportunity to consolidate. Iraq's Interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi tried a carrot and stick approach when he opened negotiations with a Shia militia in Najaf and a Sunni outfit in Fallujah after occupation troops made incursions (violent in the southern town and peaceful in the northern) into territories controlled by the militants. However, Mr. Allawi's efforts were in vain since he was unable to win over any significant group.

With the situation going rapidly out of control, the occupation forces now hope that the nascent Iraqi security services will do what they were themselves unable to. That appears forlorn. There is no shortage of men who are willing to join the Iraqi military and police forces mainly because there are few other employment opportunities. However, on almost every occasion so far, the interim government's troops either melted away or refused to fight when ordered into battle against their compatriots. The U.S. has diverted to security operations $3 billion out of the $18 billion that it had allocated for reconstruction work. That diversion could have only diminished Mr. Allawi's capacity to win the hearts and minds of his people.

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