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Friday, Sep 17, 2004

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WAR OF WORDS

THE DAILY SPARRING between the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Congress has been a sideshow that has entertained political observers ever since the 14th general election delivered a big upset in May this year. Barely did Amar Singh and Rahul Gandhi conclude their slanging match — Mr. Singh called Mr. Gandhi a child and the latter retorted that only a child could grow into a man — when the next round started. This time it was Sonia Gandhi vs Mulayam-Amar Singh. If Ms. Gandhi, on tour in Rae Bareli, predictably faulted the Uttar Pradesh Government on the law and order count, the two top SP leaders equally predictably picked up the gauntlet and accused the Congress of running a far worse administration in Delhi. Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav also let it be known that his party intended to spoil its rival's chances by contesting a large number of seats in the upcoming elections to the Maharashtra Legislative Assembly. Adding an almost comic dimension to this battle is the fact that on paper the two parties are allies — the Congress backs the SP in Uttar Pradesh and the SP returns the favour, unasked, at the Centre. Yet, at another level, the situation reflects a deeper irony. Indeed, the seemingly unintelligent SP-Congress spat underlines the dilemma that secular parties fighting for the same space must face. The commonality of their ideology dictates that they unite and the commonality of their constituencies tempts them to do precisely the opposite.

The most potent source of SP-Congress tension is their crucial dependence on the huge Muslim vote in U.P. At this juncture, this vital electoral resource is divided among the SP, which holds the lion's share, Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party, which is in second place, and the Congress, which is at the bottom of the pile but wants the top slot. The constituency the Congress is so assiduously wooing today broke away from it in the late 1980s, in the tumultuous aftermath of the opening of the Babri Masjid gates. The interim belonged largely to Mr. Mulayam Singh, who was to identify so much with the Muslim community's cause that he came to be known, in Sangh Parivar circles, as "Maulana Mulayam." Quite naturally, Mr. Mulayam Singh would be loath to upset what is often described as the Muslim-Yadav social base that has brought him such impressive political gains.

So where does the Congress' optimism spring from? From the positive feedback it got during the 2004 general election following the induction of the Gandhi family into the campaign. The buzz around Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi certainly suggested an upswing in the Congress' fortunes, one that Muslims were expected to seize upon. However, the outcome showed it was a premature calculation. The Congress polled a mere 12.04 per cent of the popular vote compared with the SP's 26.74, the BSP's 24.67, and the BJP's 22.01. If the Congress bagged nine seats to the BJP's 10, it was because its vote was concentrated in favourable pockets. Neither the Muslim nor Dalit masses are going to see the party as a winning proposition if it is unable to command a viable base vote. Even in the most optimistic Congress calculations, the party has a long way to go before there is any question of its posing a challenge to the SP. What seems to worry the latter is not any imminent comeback of the Congress in U.P.; it is the possibility of the power of the Central Government being misused. As for the Congress, its ambitions exceed its capabilities by at least a factor of two. Meanwhile, the sound and fury signifying relatively little is likely to go on.

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