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IRAN AND NON-PROLIFERATION

WHILE IRAN HAS the capacity to enrich uranium to weapon grade levels, it is apparently less interested in developing nuclear arms than in securing external assistance for its energy programme. The United States and other countries that seek to enforce the global non-proliferation regime rely on two arguments to support their contention that the Iranian nuclear programme has a weapon orientation. First, they maintain that a country rich in petroleum resources does not really need alternative sources of energy. Secondly, they contend that if the intention and purpose of enrichment is peaceful, uranium needs to be enriched only to much lower levels than Iran is currently capable of. The first line of reasoning is weak: no country can impose energy policies on another; moreover, it was Washington that encouraged the Shah's regime to develop a nuclear programme. In response to the second argument, Teheran says it is willing to reach an agreement on enrichment levels through negotiations but will not bow to diktats. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has tried to strike a compromise but the attempt has not succeeded mainly because it is under American pressure to take a tough line. At a recent meeting of the IAEA's executive board, other member-countries were able to fend off Washington's demand that the matter should be referred to the United Nations Security Council and sanctions considered if Iran refused to wind up its enrichment programme by October 31. Instead, the Agency called for a freeze of all enrichment activities and decided to reconsider the issue at an executive board meeting in November. While rejecting this call, Teheran signalled an intent to continue converting uranium yellowcake into gas. However, it declared that it would suspend further enrichment activities as a goodwill gesture. It wants the IAEA to come forward with a new initiative.

As a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran is entitled to external assistance for its civilian programme. With Washington imposing sanctions in the aftermath of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, such assistance has not been available. Iran relied on clandestine methods to sustain the programme until 1995, when Russia signed a contract to build reactors for the 1000 megawatt Busheir power plant. In June 2003, the IAEA declared that Iran "had failed to report certain nuclear materials and activities" it had developed with assistance from rogue proliferators, including the network run by Pakistan's Abdul Qadeer Khan. This finding led to a confrontation between Teheran and Washington that might have taken a dangerous turn had the United Kingdom, France and Germany not intervened. Adopting a constructive stance, these countries offered to help the Iranian energy programme once the controversy over enrichment activities was cleared up. Iran's current manoeuvres are clearly aimed at making the votaries of the NPT deliver on their promises and live up to their obligations under the discriminatory global nuclear bargain.

While the leaders of the theocratic regime have declared that they have no intention of developing weapons, many governments are reluctant to take them at their word. Teheran must avoid falling into the temptation of believing that non-conventional weapons would confer a measure of security, given a strategic situation in which the U.S. has invaded and occupied countries to its east and west. Iran follows a policy of strategic ambiguity in an effort to strengthen its demand that Israel too should be pressed to give up its nuclear weapons. The Zionist state, which is not a signatory to the NPT, has not been under any pressure to give up the arsenal it is known to possess. Iran has just cause to complain that the votaries of the non-proliferation regime persist with their blatant double standards.

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