The Hindu : Opinion / Editorials : REVERSAL OF FORTUNES

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Monday, Sep 27, 2004

Opinion

Opinion - Editorials

REVERSAL OF FORTUNES

IF A WEEK in politics is a long time, four months could be a whole era, judging by how woebegone the Bharatiya Janata Party looks these days. So dramatic has the transformation been that a casual observer might be forgiven for failing to make a connection between yesterday's seemingly invincible ruling party and the squabbling, bewildered version that currently sits in the Opposition. The BJP went into the 14th general election convinced it was on a hat trick of wins. The confidence appeared justified given the factors in the party's favour. It had a seemingly unbeatable leader in Atal Bihari Vajpayee. It was at the head of India's most successful coalition government to date, an achievement that testified as much to its management skills as to its brilliant marketing of its ideology. Indeed, once shunned as dangerous and divisive, Hindutva seemed to have become the toast of the chattering classes. And finally, there was the cleverness of the BJP slogans: "feel-good" and "India Shining" were catchwords that resonated with the middle classes, the media, and the international community. On the strength of these slogans, the BJP claimed that its record in office was better than anything seen earlier.

Today the party is a shadow of itself. Not only has its election packaging unspooled in the most unexpected manner, its USP, Mr. Vajpayee, might have as well taken sanyas from politics considering how little of his leadership has been visible in recent days. That Lal Krishna Advani is at best an ineffective substitute for Mr. Vajpayee has been evident in the way the BJP conducted itself in Parliament; the party's boycott of the Finance Bill in particular has met with universal opprobrium. By all accounts, the BJP did not deem it necessary to be present even for the last item on the parliamentary agenda — the playing of the national anthem. If this shocking behaviour suggests that the BJP has not reconciled itself to its stunning defeat in the Lok Sabha elections, the ongoing factional rivalry points to a deeper malaise: that the long years in office have destroyed the famed discipline of the BJP cadre, replacing it with a ruthless ambition for power and position.

Ever since Mr. Advani virtually ruled Mr. Vajpayee and himself out of the next general election (in an interview to Karan Thapar for the BBC), a near war has broken out among the BJP's much-acclaimed second rung of leaders. Part of the problem has to do with the absence of an identified heir apparent to Mr. Vajpayee. With the big two presumed to have given up their claims, the top post is up for grabs. The contenders are numerous and all equally ambitious — from Venkaiah Naidu to Sushma Swaraj to Uma Bharti to Pramod Mahajan to Arun Jaitley to Narendra Modi, there is hardly a member of the second rung who will settle for a lesser position than his or her peers. One need only consider the reported "telephonic tiff" between Mr. Naidu and Ms. Bharti for an idea of just how fierce this battle could turn in the future. The BJP has long attributed a "dynasty'" fixation to the Congress. To prove it was not driven by the "personality syndrome," the party of Hindutva would show off its own second rung in the manner of a prized trophy. Today, the Congress — which had seemed completely overawed by the dazzle and strength of its principal opponent before the 14th general election — has bounced back into the game, thanks at least in part to the `dynasty factor.' The BJP, on the other hand, appears to be unravelling without the transcendental personality of Mr. Vajpayee to guide and oversee its fortunes.

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