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Sunday, Oct 03, 2004

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Opinion - News Analysis

An election too close to call

There are 2,678 candidates for the 288 Assembly seats in Maharashtra. Of them, an incredible 1,083 are Independents. How is a voter to choose? Kalpana Sharma on the run-up to the October 13 elections.

NEVER BEFORE has the electorate in Maharashtra been presented with such a fractured choice. Almost every seat is being contested by old-timers, newcomers, rebels, official candidates, and a myriad different party candidates and independents. A truly "micro" election, if one might call it that. How is a voter to choose?

These are the calculations that party bosses are making as they use the one remaining week to do some intensive campaigning through the length and breadth of this large, populous, highly industrialised and urbanised State.

The October 13 election to the State Assembly has taken on an added importance because of the unexpected outcome of the recent Lok Sabha elections. Thus, for the ruling Congress-led United Progressive Alliance at the Centre, this is its first chance to prove itself at the State level.

For the National Democratic Alliance, and particularly for the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Shiv Sena, it is an essential test to establish that their appeal has not vanished altogether.

The main battleground that has emerged in the last week is western Maharashtra, which has the largest number of seats. When the poll process began, the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party were confident that nothing much could change in the region that was their traditional stronghold. In the 1999 Assembly elections, the NCP had won 34 seats and the Congress 19 even though they had fought separately. In the recent Lok Sabha elections, the Congress-NCP alliance won 10 out of 12 seats leaving only two to the Shiv Sena. This included the important seat of Solapur, formerly held by the Maharashtra Chief Minister Sushilkumar Shinde. However, while in 1999, the BJP-Shiv Sena only won 15 seats, in the recent Lok Sabha elections it led in 17 Assembly segments suggesting that it is making inroads in the region.

But the fight in western Maharashtra will be between the Congress-NCP and their respective rebel candidates and not between the two main alliances. This should have been foreseen as inevitable. In 1999, because the parties fought separately, all so-called rebels were accommodated as NCP candidates. This time the parties are together and have to share seats. As a result, a large number of NCP aspirants as well as many Congressmen have been disappointed.

Rebels factor

The importance of rebels is already well entrenched in the State's politics. In 1995, when the Shiv Sena-BJP formed the government, Congress rebels who won as Independents gave them the additional numbers. And in return, they got ministerial berths or important posts. The pattern was repeated in 1999, when the Congress and NCP came together after the polls to form the Democratic Front. They had to woo their own rebels to make up the numbers to form the government.

This time, for the 288 seats, there are 2,678 candidates. Of these, an incredible 1,083 are Independents. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which has only a marginal presence in the State, has fielded the largest number of candidates, 272.

Obviously, the BSP has decided that the best route to expand its base in Maharashtra is not only by wooing Dalits, but also by exploiting the large number of disgruntled ticket seekers from the established parties. The BSP's presence on the ballot will enhance the confusion for the average voter.

It is the rebels amongst the over 1,000 Independents that are giving all the parties a royal headache. The Congress-NCP will not admit how many rebel candidates there are in the field.

But given the rate at which expulsions are taking place — 27 from the Congress and 13 from the NCP — the situation is quite grave for both parties. A close look at the list of candidates in western Maharashtra, in particular, reveals a rebel in almost every constituency. These are men with connections and the personal backing of well-heeled individuals.

The rebellion is not based on issues, but on ensuring economic control of the sugar-rich region. Several rebels stand a good chance of defeating the official candidate. The reason that the Congress and NCP are not expelling all such individuals is because they want to keep the doors open to negotiate with them after the election. For it is already clear that the Independents will again play a crucial role in determining the next government in Maharashtra.

Allies lost

Apart from rebels, the Congress-NCP also faces the prospect of losing crucially important votes to former allies who are all fighting separately this time. In 1999, the alliance had an understanding with the Peasants and Workers Party, the Janata Dal (Secular), the Bharatiya Bahujan Mahasangh (BBM), the two Left parties and the Samajwadi Party.

This time all these parties are fighting separately. Furthermore, only two out of the four factions of the Republican Party of India are with the alliance. As a result, the vote is going to be fractured even more.

None of this automatically adds up to a victory for the saffron alliance because, for the first time, it is also facing rebellion. Although the numbers are not as big as in the Congress-NCP alliance — the BJP has a handful of rebels, the Shiv Sena 13 — this is bound to make a difference in the marginal seats.

Fissures in Sena

The Shiv Sena is also openly exhibiting fissures in its ranks as the hold of the ageing leader Bal Thackeray slackens and others like his son Uddhav Thackeray, his nephew Raj Thackeray and former Chief Ministers Manohar Joshi and Narayan Rane jockey for power.

Another interesting aspect emerging in Maharashtra is the breakdown of traditional caste vote banks. The Dalit votes are divided amongst the various factions of the RPI, the BSP and the Congress.

The Maratha votes, primarily with the Congress and NCP, have now spread to other parties like the Shiv Sena in some constituencies. The Muslims, who comprise significant numbers in a few constituencies, are also divided with some even ready to vote for the Shiv Sena if the individual is viewed as sympathetic to local issues.

In the final analysis, every statement becomes a generalisation in the current scenario in Maharashtra because of the micro-level struggles that one is witnessing during these elections.

Issues such as farmers' indebtedness, water scarcity, malnutrition in the tribal belts, the power generation crisis, industrial closures and the State Government's fiscal indiscipline, have been almost completely subsumed under the local power struggles in regions such as Marathwada and western Maharashtra and to a lesser extent in Vidarbha.

Even the most experienced pollster does not dare make a prediction. This election is too close to call.

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