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BEYOND THE TERROR

THE DEVASTATING BOMB blast at Dimapur railway station in Nagaland and the series of terrorist explosions in Dhubri, Darrang and Kokrajhar districts of Assam over the weekend are perhaps the clearest indication that the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) and United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) have managed to overcome the military setbacks they suffered when they were driven out of their camps in southern Bhutan by the Bhutanese and Indian security forces earlier this year. If anything, it now seems their forced dispersal from the Druk Kingdom has made them more mobile and desperate — and, therefore, harder to counter. Although the Bodo outfit has not claimed responsibility, the pattern of last weekend's campaign of terror strongly suggests its involvement. As for ULFA, Paresh Baruah has declared that this was his organisation's reply to the call for dialogue extended recently by Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi. There is also the possibility that the Khaplang faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland assisted the NDFB. Indeed the choice of Dimapur as a target suggests that the motive was either to embarrass — or settle scores with — NSCN (Isak-Muivah), which is engaged in a protracted dialogue with the Government of India. Certainly, the NSCN (I-M) has not taken too kindly to the targeting of Dimapur: the group has announced a reward for information about the perpetrators. This could mean that a period of infighting among various militant groups in the Northeast lies ahead.

Since its rebirth in the mid-1990s, the NDFB has been one of the deadliest and least conciliatory of all the insurgent groups in the region. Though the Bodo Liberation Tigers (BLT) completed their process of surrender in December 2003 and have begun participating in the interim Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) set up in Kokrajhar, the NDFB has consistently rejected all offers of a general amnesty. The BTC, envisaged by the Centre and the Assam Government as the vehicle for protecting the autonomy of the Bodos under the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution, is seen by the NDFB as a sell-out. Like ULFA, the group remains adamant about its demand for independence; it is not interested in dialogue unless this is conceded.

As the Centre considers its options, it would do well to avoid any knee-jerk crackdown. Past experience tells us that when the security forces act in haste, the margin of error increases dramatically. To be effective, counter-insurgency strategy has to be sharply focussed and professionally executed. Operations Bajrang and Rhino may have led to the elimination of extremists but the heavy-handed tactics adopted also helped create a new base of resentment that ULFA has successfully tapped into. In the long run, it is the concern for people and their democratic and human rights that gives the state legitimacy; it helps defeat insurgents like ULFA and the NDFB that recognise no civilised norms. Likewise, the Centre should think twice before accepting the advice of those who feel it is time to `tighten the screws' on Bangladesh or Myanmar for allegedly providing shelter to Northeast militants. New Delhi's accusation against Dhaka is well known, as is Bangladesh's equally vociferous denial of any complicity in the activities of the outlawed Indian groups. While the presence of individual ULFA or Bodo leaders in Bangladesh — with or without the knowledge of the Government — is undeniable, there is no evidence that there are camps of the kind that existed in Bhutan until last year. The sooner India drops any idea of `muscular' talk, the easier it will be to secure the cooperation of the Bangladesh Rifles in matters of blocking insurgent cells from retreating across the border.

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